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2010年以前のマレーシア経済


2011年以降のマレーシア経済（＃17）

ME 16-2,マレーシア2015/4Qは4.5％（2016-2-18）

ME16-1, マレーシアの2015/11の輸出は前年同月比+6.3％（2016-1-8）


ＴＭ12-1　マレーシアの2011年の成長率は5.1％（2012-3-3）

TME11-2 マレーシアの11/3Qの成長率は5.8％？（2011-12-1）


ME11-1 マレーシアの2011年2Ｑの成長率は4.0％（2011-8-27）

マレーシア経済は2009年のマイナス成長（－1.7%)から2010年は7.2%へと大きく改善した。しかし、2010年の後半から輸出が伸び悩み、製造業の伸び率が鈍化し始めた。GDPの伸びは2011年1Ｑは4.9％、2Ｑは4.0％とそこそこの伸びといえるがエレクトロニクスを中心とする輸出の伸び悩み傾向は続いており、先行き大きな展望は開けない。

マレーシアはタイと違って自動車産業がサッパリでもっぱらエレクトロニクス関連で経済を引っ張ってきたという側面が強い。しかし、半導体は何とか輸出は伸びているが家電製品や電機部品が競争力が落ちてきていることは下の第3表の輸出実績をみれば一目でわかる。

石油製品は石油生産の停滞にもかかわらず、伸びている。光学機械は比較的健闘している。

1次産品輸出はゴムとパーム油は好調であるが、石油は生産が減っているうえに、国内の精製設備に供給がふえており、輸出は急減している。逆にＬＮＧの輸出はは増加している。

表ME11-2Q-1　部門別成長率推移（前年同期比、2000年価格、％）

表ME11-2Q-2　実質GDE（国内支出）推移（前年同期比、2000年価格、％）

表ME11-2Q-3 品目別輸出、対前年伸び率（100万ﾘﾝｷﾞ、％）


TME11-2 マレーシアの11/3Qの成長率は5.8％？（2011-12-1）


マレーシアのGDPの伸びは2011年1Ｑは4.9％、2Ｑは4.0％から3Qには5.8％と好調を維持しているかに見える。しかし、その内訳をみるとこの数字はありえないということがすぐわかる。というのは消費が9.9％も前年同期比で伸びているのである。消費は民間と政府とが分けられていないが、民間消費が前年同期比10％は伸びていることになる。

輸出も一向に振るわない。実質ベースでは前年同Q比わずかに4.2％の伸びである。実額でみても8.4％の伸びである。製造業製品は5.1％しか伸びておらず、逆に1次産品系は6品目合計で32.1％も伸びている。

マレーシアはタイと違って自動車産業がサッパリでもっぱらエレクトロニクス関連で経済を引っ張ってきたという側面が強い。しかし、半導体は何とか輸出は伸びているが家電製品や電機部品が競争力が落ちてきていることは下の第3表の輸出実績をみれば一目でわかる。

1次産品輸出はゴムとパーム油は好調であるが、石油は生産が減っているうえに、国内の精製設備に供給がふえており、原油輸出は急減している。逆にＬＮＧの輸出はは増加している。

表ME11-3Q-1　部門別成長率推移（前年同期比、2000年価格、％）

2007年まで遡及して訂正済み

　表ME11-3Q-2　実質GDE（国内支出）推移（前年同期比、2000年価格、％）

2007年まで遡及して訂正済み

表ME11-3Q-3 マレーシアの輸出（単位：100万ドル、％）

ＴＭ12-1　マレーシアの2011年の成長率は5.1％（2012-3-3）

マレーシアのGDPの伸びは2011年3Ｑは5.9％、4Ｑは5.2％となり、通年では5.1％と好調を維持している。しかし、その内訳をみるとこの数字はありえないということがすぐわかる。というのは消費が4Ｑで11.1％も伸びており、通年でも8.9％も前年同期比で伸びているのである。消費は民間と政府とが分けられていないが、消費がこのように高い伸びを示すことは考えられない。

また、マレーシア中央銀行(Ｂａｎｋ　Ｎｅｇａｒａ　Ｍａｌａｙｓｉａ）は2011年4Ｑから従来発表していた統計表を大幅に減らしてしまい、たとえば輸出統計などは見られなくなってしまった。当局の意図は不明であるが、何か不都合な真実が隠されてしまったという憶測も生じてくる。

輸出もさほど大きく伸びたとは言えない。4Ｑでは実質ベースでは前年同Q比4.9％の伸びである。実額の統計は今回発表されていない。

表ME11-4Q-1　部門別成長率推移（前年同期比、2000年価格、％）

2007年まで遡及して訂正済み

　表ME11-4Q-2　実質GDE（国内支出）推移（前年同期比、2000年価格、％）

2007年まで遡及して訂正済み

ME16-1, マレーシアの2015/11の輸出は前年同月比+6.3％（2016-1-8）

KUALA LUMPUR -- Malaysia's exports in November rose at only half the pace anticipated, but economists said the country's trade picture remains satisfactory given the weak state of global demand.

Government data on Thursday showed that exports grew 6.3% year-on-year, compared to the median forecast in a Reuters poll for a 12.2% rise.

Southeast Asia's third-largest economy has been hit by weak global prices for its commodity exports, and by a slowdown in China, which in November was the biggest buyer of Malaysian's exports.

From a year earlier, November earnings from liquefied natural gas tumbled while those from electronics and electrical products, the biggest export, increased only marginally.

"The export figures are a little bit disappointing, but considering what we've seen in the rest of the region, Malaysia's (export numbers) are still going up and that's going to continue going forward," said Euben Paracuelles, an economist with Nomura in Singapore.

"Outside of commodities, a lot of Malaysia's manufactured exports are going to the US and this should help to offset the effects from the slowdown in China."

Malaysia only reports trade figures in ringgit, which slumped more than 18% against the US dollar in 2015.

November's trade surplus narrowed to 10.23 billion ringgit (US$2.32 billion) from 12.2 billion ringgit the previous month.

Despite weaker commodity prices, Malaysia's year-to-date trade surplus of 86.3 billion ringgit is considerably larger than the 73.6 billion ringgit from the same period last year.

"This should provide some relief to the current account balance," Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays Bank, Singapore, said in a report.

For the July-September quarter, Malaysia reported its smallest current account surplus in more than two years.

ANZ said it expected the current account to "remain comfortably in surplus", increasing from 3.4% of gross domestic product to 4.5% in 2016.

Imports in November rose 9.1% on higher demand for electronic products and consumer goods. The poll had forecast a 14.1% rise in imports, which slipped 0.4% in October.

In October, exports rose 16.7 per cent, its highest growth since April 2014.

For November, exports to the EU rose 5.9% from a year earlier, while those to the US increased 9.2% on higher shipments of manufactured goods.

In the third quarter, Malaysia grew 4.7% from a year earlier, quarter, its slowest economic growth in over two years.



ME 16-2,マレーシア2015/4Qは4.5％（2016-2-18）

Pooi Koon Chong

February 18, 2016 — 1:00 PM JST Updated on February 18, 2016 — 2:27 PM JST

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Malaysia’s growth slowed less than expected after overseas shipments and factory output held up, providing some measure of support for an economy facing faltering investment and higher costs.

Gross domestic product rose 4.5 percent in the three months through December from a year earlier, after climbing 4.7 percent in the previous quarter, the government said in a statement Thursday. That compares with a 4.1 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy grew 5 percent in 2015.

The ringgit fell more than any other Asian currency against the dollar last year, making Malaysia’s goods more attractive to overseas buyers. That is countered by a slump in crude that has curbed government revenues and prompted Prime Minister Najib Razak to trim the growth forecast for 2016, while rising costs crimp business investment.

"We are far from upbeat about the prospects for Malaysia this year," said Krystal Tan of Capital Economics Ltd. "The effects of low commodity prices will continue to feed through into the real economy, curtailing investment in the energy sector, keeping commodity export income weak and hurting fiscal revenue."

Ringgit Gains

The ringgit gained 1.3 percent against the dollar in Kuala Lumpur Thursday, extending its advance after growth and the current-account surplus figures beat estimates. The Malaysian currency has appreciated about 3.2 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, rebounding after a 19 percent decline in 2015.

Bank Negara Malaysia left interest rates unchanged for a ninth meeting last month, while cutting the amount of cash banks must set aside as reserves for the first time since 2009 to boost funds in the financial system. The central bank on Thursday warned that the economy is expected to face a "challenging operating environment" with the domestic demand engine projected to slow down.

"While the growth in income and employment continues to support private consumption, it is expected to moderate as households continue to adjust to the higher cost of living," it said in a statement. "The downside risks to growth will however remain, given the continued uncertainty in the external environment and the on-going reforms in the domestic economy."

Slower Expansion

Growth is now expected by the government to be 4 percent to 4.5 percent this year, compared with an earlier projection of as much as 5 percent. Inflation is projected to rise 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent this year, higher than an October forecast of 2 percent to 3 percent.

A key consumer confidence gauge fell to a record low last quarter, and households are turning more negative in their financial outlook for the first half of 2016. The government agreed to delay a plan to double foreign worker levies after companies protested the move, saying it would raise the cost of doing business amid an already difficult operating environment.

"Malaysia is unlikely to be able to sustain its mojo in 2016," said Weiwen Ng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. "The balance of risks in 2016 are skewed towards growth disappointment and fiscal slippage with inflation pressures of second order concern. Structurally lower oil prices means that Malaysia will still be confronted with significant growth and fiscal headwinds."

‘Sturdy Growth’

Exports rose 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after gaining 3.2 percent in the previous three months, the statistics department said. Manufacturing expansion quickened to 5 percent, and electrical and electronic products had "sturdy growth," it said. 

Private consumption expenditure climbed 4.9 percent last quarter from a year ago, accelerating from 4.1 percent in the previous period. Private investment growth slowed to 5 percent from 5.5 percent in the third quarter.

"Private investment is projected to moderate to below its long term trend but will nevertheless be supported by the capital expenditure in the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the implementation of infrastructure projects," the central bank said.