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The Trade of The United States of America (Unfinished)


1. US Trade with China in 2015

Below table's source is "The China Custom", and differnt from the figures of US "Census Basia", US Departmen of Commerce.


USA had recorded huge amount of trade deficit with China, every year.
 This is the cause why American has been declining for several decades.
It’s a central feature of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign -- you can’t “make America great again” unless America isn’t-so-great right now. Although Trump often seems disconnected from reality, on this issue he has a point. The U.S. is in decline. The situation is so severe but there’s probably time to arrest its progress or prevent it from accelerating.

The biggest exporting item of USA to China is XVI (Macchinary, Electronics etc) of which amount in 2015 was 35,423 million$, decreased -7.4% compared with 2014. The share of the total exports is 23.8% in 2015.

The 2nd item isXVII (Vehicles). In 2015, exported 30,261 million$, increased 1.4%. The share was 20.3%.
The rd item was II Vegetable products. USA ia an aglicultural country. In 2015, 16,423 million$, decreased 15.5%. The share ws 11.0%.

The 4th item was VI (Chemicals, Fertiliser ), In 2015 12,656 million$, -1.4%. The share was 8.5%.

Where is the strenghth of a manufacturing country. USA has been deteiorating as a manufacturing country.



Table US1 Chaina's Import from USA (million$,%)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11/10 12/11 13/12 2014 2015
I Live animals, fish, dairy 1,475 2,953 2,986 2,991 2,920 2,030 100.2 1.1 0.2 -2.4 -30.5
II Vegetable products 12,354 14,230 18,256 16,496 19,446 16,423 15.2 28.3 -9.6 17.9 -15.5
III Animal, vegetable oil 280 321 364 183 248 68 35.1 -72.6
IV Beverages, tabacco 1,557 1,537 2,027 2,781 3,169 3,641 -1.3 31.9 37.2 14.0 14.9
V Mineral, ores, oils 3,294 4,326 4,950 5,312 4,709 4,568 31.3 14.4 7.3 -11.3 -3.0
VI Chemicals, fertilizers 10,903 12,570 12,362 12,557 12,840 12,656 15.3 -1.7 1.6 2.3 -1.4
VII Plastics, rubber 7,387 8,016 7,665 7,601 8,085 7,442 8.5 -4.4 -0.8 6.4 -7.9
VIII Leather, skin 1,101 1,426 1,579 1,858 1,823 1,671 29.5 10.7 17.6 -1.9 -8.3
IX Wood,cork, charcoal 1,186 2,032 1,672 2,387 2,868 2,221 71.3 -17.7 42.8 20.1 -22.6
X Pulp, paper 4,496 5,914 5,613 5,619 5,345 5,309 31.5 -5.1 0.1 -4.9 -0.7
XI Textile, clothing, silk 3,058 4,177 4,962 3,818 2,525 1,982 36.6 18.8 -23.1 -33.9 -21.5
XII Footware, umbrellas 92 91 91 97 92 114 -0.6 -0.5 6.6 -4.8 23.8
XIII Stone, glass, ceramic 882 1,246 952 1,229 1,524 1,167 41.2 -23.6 29.2 24.0 -23.4
XIV Jewerry, pearl 259 440 392 449 350 5,996 69.5 -10.9 14.6 -22.0 1,612.8
XV Base metals 6,505 8,356 8,512 8,139 7,040 5,759 28.5 1.9 -4.4 -13.5 -18.2
72 Iron & Steel 939 1,707 779 728 345 285 81.9 -54.4 -6.6 -52.6 -17.4
XVI Machinery, Electronics 28,721 29,445 28,947 38,342 38,250 35,423 2.5 -1.7 32.5 -0.2 -7.4
84 Machinery & parts 13,569 15,535 14,652 15,472 16,705 15,826 14.5 -5.7 5.6 8.0 -5.3
85 Electrical machinery, parts 15,152 13,910 14,296 22,869 21,545 19,597 -8.2 2.8 60.0 -5.8 -9.0
XVII Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels 10,426 12,358 15,951 24,537 29,850 30,261 18.5 29.1 53.8 21.7 1.4
XVIII Optical, clocks, musical insr 7,008 8,342 10,082 11,123 11,402 11,343 19.0 20.9 10.3 2.5 -0.5
XIX Arms, amunition 1 0 0 0 0 0
XX Miscellaneous 302 353 401 431 489 605 16.8 13.9 7.3 13.5 23.6
XXI Works of art, antiques 4 7 5 65 35 16
XXII Commodities not classified 745 4,016 5,119 6,561 6,021 42
Total 102,036 122,153 132,886 152,575 159,033 148,737 19.7 8.8 14.8 4.2 -6.5
I Live animals, fish, dairy 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4
II Vegetable products 12.1 11.6 13.7 10.8 12.2 11.0
III Animal, vegetable oil 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0
IV Beverages, tabacco 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.4
V Mineral, ores, oils 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.1
VI Chemicals, fertilizers 10.7 10.3 9.3 8.2 8.1 8.5
VII Plastics, rubber 7.2 6.6 5.8 5.0 5.1 5.0
VIII Leather, skin 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
IX Wood,cork, charcoal 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.5
X Pulp, paper 4.4 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.6
XI Textile, clothing, silk 3.0 3.4 3.7 2.5 1.6 1.3
XII Footware, umbrellas 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
XIII Stone, glass, ceramic 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8
XIV Jewerry, pearl 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 4.0
XV Base metals 6.4 6.8 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.9
72 Iron & Steel 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2
XVI Machinery, Electronics 28.1 24.1 21.8 25.1 24.1 23.8
84 Machinery & parts 13.3 12.7 11.0 10.1 10.5 10.6
85 Electrical machinery, parts 14.8 11.4 10.8 15.0 13.5 13.2
XVII Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels 10.2 10.1 12.0 16.1 18.8 20.3
XVIII Optical, clocks, musical insr 6.9 6.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.6
XIX Arms, amunition 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
XX Miscellaneous 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
XXI Works of art, antiques 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
XXII Commodities not classified 0.7 3.3 3.9 4.3 3.8 0.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100





Table US2 China's Export to USA (million$,%)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11/10 12/11 13/12 2014 2015
I Live animals, fish, dairy 1,963 2,073 1,964 2,062 2,209 2,103 5.6 -5.3 5.0 7.1 -4.8
II Vegetable products 989 1,178 1,250 1,270 1,360 1,442 19.1 6.1 1.6 7.1 6.0
III Animal, vegetable oil 57 76 85 104 94 86 33.7 12.0 22.3 -9.8 -7.7
IV Beverages, tabacco 2,690 3,287 3,774 3,741 3,620 3,584 22.2 14.8 -0.9 -3.2 -1.0
V Mineral, ores, oils 1,229 1,560 1,770 1,702 1,744 1,336 26.9 13.5 -3.8 2.5 -23.4
VI Chemicals, fertilizers 9,155 11,597 11,699 11,835 12,792 12,549 26.7 0.9 1.2 8.1 -1.9
VII Plastics, rubber 10,482 13,406 16,001 17,082 17,933 17,990 27.9 19.4 6.8 5.0 0.3
VIII Leather, skin 5,593 7,161 7,187 7,257 6,922 7,939 28.0 0.4 1.0 -4.6 14.7
IX Wood,cork, charcoal 2,766 2,843 3,284 3,463 3,881 4,103 2.8 15.5 5.5 12.1 5.7
X Pulp, paper 2,438 3,081 3,227 3,490 3,602 4,548 26.4 4.7 8.2 3.2 26.3
XI Textile, clothing, silk 31,444 35,047 36,170 38,944 41,879 44,774 11.5 3.2 7.7 7.5 6.9
XII Footware, umbrellas 13,317 14,989 16,390 16,686 17,369 18,486 12.6 9.3 1.8 4.1 6.4
XIII Stone, glass, ceramic 3,839 5,247 5,295 5,725 6,026 8,433 36.7 0.9 8.1 5.3 39.9
XIV Jewerry, pearl 2,054 2,179 2,883 3,852 4,392 4,207 6.1 32.3 33.6 14.0 -4.2
XV Base metals 15,021 17,863 19,046 19,845 22,171 23,206 18.9 6.6 4.2 11.7 4.7
72 Iron & Steel 958 1,511 1,498 1,489 2,485 1,495 57.7 -0.8 -0.6 66.9 -39.9
XVI Machinery, Electronics 132,874 149,988 163,318 169,335 182,845 179,533 12.9 8.9 3.7 8.0 -1.8
84 Machinery & parts 71,633 82,019 85,896 86,592 90,796 84,352 14.5 4.7 0.8 4.9 -7.1
85 Electrical machinery, parts 61,241 67,969 77,423 82,742 92,049 95,180 11.0 13.9 6.9 11.2 3.4
XVII Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels 10,438 12,627 13,385 13,970 16,975 16,955 21.0 6.0 4.4 21.5 -0.1
XVIII Optical, clocks, musical insr 7,658 8,252 9,483 9,593 10,386 11,005 7.8 14.9 1.2 8.3 6.0
XIX Arms, amunition 61 70 85 105 91 109
XX Miscellaneous 29,047 31,699 35,385 38,236 39,706 47,025 9.1 11.6 8.1 3.8 18.4
XXI Works of art, antiques 39 101 102 117 70 121
XXII Commodities not classified 151 168 14 15 14 6
Total 283,304 324,492 351,796 368,427 396,083 409,538 14.5 8.4 4.7 7.5 3.4
I Live animals, fish, dairy 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
II Vegetable products 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
III Animal, vegetable oil 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
IV Beverages, tabacco 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9
V Mineral, ores, oils 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
VI Chemicals, fertilizers 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1
VII Plastics, rubber 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4
VIII Leather, skin 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.9
IX Wood,cork, charcoal 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
X Pulp, paper 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1
XI Textile, clothing, silk 11.1 10.8 10.3 10.6 10.6 10.9
XII Footware, umbrellas 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5
XIII Stone, glass, ceramic 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.1
XIV Jewerry, pearl 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0
XV Base metals 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7
72 Iron & Steel 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4
XVI Machinery, Electronics 46.9 46.2 46.4 46.0 46.2 43.8
84 Machinery & parts 25.3 25.3 24.4 23.5 22.9 20.6
85 Electrical machinery, parts 21.6 20.9 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.2
XVII Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.3 4.1
XVIII Optical, clocks, musical insr 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7
XIX Arms, amunition 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
XX Miscellaneous 10.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.0 11.5
XXI Works of art, antiques 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
XXII Commodities not classified 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0




Table US3 China's Trade Balance with USA (million$,%)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
I Live animals, fish, dairy 488 -880 -1,022 -929 -710 73
II Vegetable products -11,366 -13,053 -17,006 -15,226 -18,086 -14,981
III Animal, vegetable oil -223 -245 -279 -80 -154 18
IV Beverages, tabacco 1,134 1,751 1,747 960 451 -57
V Mineral, ores, oils -2,065 -2,766 -3,180 -3,610 -2,965 -3,232
VI Chemicals, fertilizers -1,748 -973 -663 -722 -48 -107
VII Plastics, rubber 3,095 5,390 8,336 9,481 9,848 10,548
VIII Leather, skin 4,492 5,735 5,608 5,400 5,099 6,268
IX Wood,cork, charcoal 1,580 811 1,612 1,076 1,013 1,882
X Pulp, paper -2,058 -2,833 -2,386 -2,129 -1,743 -761
XI Textile, clothing, silk 28,386 30,871 31,208 35,126 39,354 42,792
XII Footware, umbrellas 13,226 14,898 16,299 16,589 17,277 18,372
XIII Stone, glass, ceramic 2,956 4,001 4,343 4,496 4,502 7,266
XIV Jewerry, pearl 1,794 1,739 2,492 3,403 4,042 -1,789
XV Base metals 8,516 9,507 10,534 11,706 15,130 17,447
72 Iron & Steel 19 -196 719 761 2,140 1,210
XVI Machinery, Electronics 104,153 120,543 134,371 130,993 144,595 144,109
84 Machinery & parts 58,064 66,484 71,244 71,120 74,091 68,526
85 Electrical machinery, parts 46,089 54,059 63,127 59,873 70,504 75,583
XVII Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels 12 269 -2,566 -10,567 -12,875 -13,305
XVIII Optical, clocks, musical insr 650 -90 -599 -1,530 -1,016 -338
XIX Arms, amunition 60 70 85 104 90 108
XX Miscellaneous 28,745 31,347 34,984 37,805 39,217 46,420
XXI Works of art, antiques 35 94 98 52 35 106
XXII Commodities not classified -594 -3,848 -5,105 -6,547 -6,007 -36
Total 181,267 202,339 218,910 215,851 237,050 260,802
I Live animals, fish, dairy 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0
II Vegetable products -6.3 -6.5 -7.8 -7.1 -7.6 -5.7
III Animal, vegetable oil -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 0.0
IV Beverages, tabacco 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.0
V Mineral, ores, oils -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 -1.3 -1.2
VI Chemicals, fertilizers -1.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.0 -0.0
VII Plastics, rubber 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.0
VIII Leather, skin 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.4
IX Wood,cork, charcoal 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7
X Pulp, paper -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3
XI Textile, clothing, silk 15.7 15.3 14.3 16.3 16.6 16.4
XII Footware, umbrellas 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.7 7.3 7.0
XIII Stone, glass, ceramic 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.8
XIV Jewerry, pearl 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 -0.7
XV Base metals 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.4 6.4 6.7
72 Iron & Steel 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.5
XVI Machinery, Electronics 57.5 59.6 61.4 60.7 61.0 55.3
84 Machinery & parts 32.0 32.9 32.5 32.9 31.3 26.3
85 Electrical machinery, parts 25.4 26.7 28.8 27.7 29.7 29.0
XVII Vehicles, airpcraft,vessels 0.0 0.1 -1.2 -4.9 -5.4 -5.1
XVIII Optical, clocks, musical insr 0.4 -0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1
XIX Arms, amunition 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
XX Miscellaneous 15.9 15.5 16.0 17.5 16.5 17.8
XXI Works of art, antiques 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
XXII Commodities not classified -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -3.0 -2.5 -0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0






2. Free Trade With China Wasn't Such a Great Idea for the U.S.

Noah Smith
229
By

In his recent book "Economics Rules," Harvard economist Dani Rodrik laments how economists often portray a public consensus while disagreeing strongly in private. In effect, economists behave like scientists behind closed doors, but as preachers when dealing with the public.

Nowhere is this evangelism clearer than on the issue of trade. Ask any economist what issue they agree on, and the first answer you’re likely to hear is “free trade is good.”  The general public disagrees vehemently, but economists are almost unanimous on this point.

But look at actual economics research, and you will find a very different picture. The most recent example is a paper by celebrated labor economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, titled “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade.” The study shows that increased trade with China caused severe and permanent harm to many American workers:

Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition...but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize.

Autor, et al. show powerful evidence that industries and regions that have been more exposed to Chinese import competition since 2000 -- the year China joined the World Trade Organization -- have been hit hard and have not recovered. Workers in these industries and regions don't go on to better jobs, or even similar jobs in different industries. Instead, they shuffle from low-paid job to low-paid job, never recovering the prosperity they had before Chinese competition hit. Many of them end up on welfare. This is very different from earlier decades, when workers who lost their jobs to import competition usually went into higher-productivity industries, to the benefit of almost everyone.

In other words, the public might have been wrong about free trade in the 1980s and 1990s, but things have changed. Popular opinion seems to be exactly right about the effect of trade with China -- it has killed jobs and damaged the lives of many, many Americans. Economists may blithely declare that free trade is wonderful, but our best researchers have now shown that public misgivings about these smooth assurances have been completely justified.

Why are economists so willing to declare to the world that free trade is good, even after reading papers like the one by Autor et al.? Part of the problem is the definition of “good.” According to most models of trade, reducing trade barriers raises efficiency -- which is to say, total gross domestic product. But efficiency says nothing about fairness, and almost any model of trade will show that some people, industries and regions lose out. If most Americans experience slight gains from lower import prices, and a few lose their livelihoods and have to go on welfare, economists call that a “good” outcome, because they are so focused on the concept of efficiency. But because the public cares about a lot more than efficiency, the job losses in industries and regions knocked out by China since 2000 have made economists seem increasingly callous and out of touch.

But this is only part of the problem. Economists are also stubbornly unwilling to question their benchmark theories, even when the evidence presents a challenge to these theories. The fact that Autor et al. find total national employment declining in response to trade with China should be cause for concern. Standard trade models, especially the simple ones taught in Econ 101, predict that this shouldn’t have happened. Autor et al. sternly rebuke the economics profession for relying too much on theory, and not enough on evidence, when it comes to the issue of trade:

We argue that having failed to anticipate how significant the dislocations from trade might be, it is incumbent on the economics literature to more convincingly estimate gains from trade, such that the case for free trade is not based on theory alone, but on a foundation of evidence.

The authors suggest that real-world economies may simply be much worse at adjusting to big changes than most economic models assume. It is expensive and time-consuming for workers to train for new jobs and to move to new locations. It also takes time and money for businesses to figure out how to change their business models in response to the new landscape presented by a global economy with China in it. These adjustment costs might overwhelm the gains from trade.

In the case of China, Autor et al.’s warning may come too late. China’s economy is slowing and its costs are rising rapidly. No new prospective trade partners will be able to replicate anything close to the China shock. In other words, the unique problems created by trade with China might have been a one-off event. But economists should still re-evaluate their benchmark theories, and ease up in their adamant rhetoric in favor of free trade.

 


Table USA Trade (Census Basis) million$

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20115 11/00 12/11 13/12 14/13 15/41
World Ttl Export 1,288,699 1,499,240 1,561,690 1,592,784 1,632,639 1,513,888 16.3 4.2 2.0 2.5 -7.3
Import 1,934,555 2,239,886 2,303,784 2,294,453 2,374,101 2,272,821 15.8 2.9 -0.4 3.5 -4.3
Balance -645,856 -740,646 -742,095 -701,669 -741,462 -758,933 14.7 0.2 -5.4 5.7 2.4
Japn Export 60,486 65,800 69,964 65,206 66,827 62,472 8.8 6.3 -6.8 2.5 -6.5
Import 120,545 128,928 146,438 138,573 134,004 131,120 7.0 13.6 -5.4 -3.3 -2.2
Balance -60,060 -63,128 -76,474 -73,368 -67,177 -68,648 5.1 21.1 -4.1 -8.4 2.2
China Export 91,881 104,122 110,516 121,736 123,676 116,186 13.3 6.1 10.2 1.6 -6.1
Import 364,944 399,371 425,626 440,448 466,754 481,881 9.4 6.6 3.5 6.0 3.2
Balance -273,063 -295,250 -315,111 -318,711 -343,078 -365,695 8.1 6.7 1.1 7.6 6.6
Korea Export 38,846 43,462 42,265 41,715 44,471 43,499 11.9 -2.8 -1.3 6.6 -2.2
Import 48,875 56,661 58,902 62,388 69,518 71,827 15.9 4.0 5.9 11.4 3.3
Balance -10,029 -13,200 -16,636 -20,674 -25,047 -28,328 31.6 26.0 24.3 21.2 13.1
Taiwan Export 26,043 25,933 24,338 25,472 26,670 25,929 -0.4 -6.2 4.7 4.7 -2.8
Import 35,846 41,405 38,861 37,940 40,518 40,708 15.5 -6.1 -2.4 6.8 0.5
Balance -9,803 -15,473 -14,523 -12,468 -13,848 -14,779 57.8 -6.1 -14.2 11.1 6.7
Hong Kong Export 26,570 36,399 37,471 42,342 40,858 37,174 37.0 2.9 13.0 -3.5 -9.0
Import 4,296 4,410 5,456 5,684 5,869 6,703 2.6 23.7 4.2 3.2 14.2
Balance 22,274 31,989 32,015 36,658 34,989 30,471 43.6 0.1 14.5 -4.6 -12.9
Singapore Export 29,017 31,282 30,526 30,672 30,237 28,657 7.8 -2.4 0.5 -1.4 -5.2
Import 17,427 19,116 20,232 17,843 16,426 18,235 9.7 5.8 -11.8 -7.9 11.0
Balance 11,590 12,167 10,294 12,829 13,811 10,422 5.0 -15.4 24.6 7.7 -24.5
Indonesia Export 6,946 7,421 7,999 9,100 8,284 7,123 6.8 7.8 13.8 -9.0 -14.0
Import 16,478 19,111 18,002 18,877 19,361 19,575 16.0 -5.8 4.9 2.6 1.1
Balance -9,532 -11,690 -10,004 -9,777 -11,077 -12,452 22.6 -14.4 -2.3 13.3 12.4
Malaysia Export 14,080 14,264 12,818 13,007 13,086 12,293 1.3 -10.1 1.5 0.6 -6.1
Import 25,900 25,777 25,935 27,289 30,420 33,828 -0.5 0.6 5.2 11.5 11.2
Balance -11,821 -11,513 -13,117 -14,282 -17,334 -21,535 -2.6 13.9 8.9 21.4 24.2
Thailand Export 8,977 10,930 10,888 11,797 11,810 11,247 21.8 -0.4 8.4 0.1 -4.8
Import 22,693 24,833 26,072 26,173 27,123 28,595 9.4 5.0 0.4 3.6 5.4
Balance -13,716 -13,903 -15,185 -14,376 -15,313 -17,348 1.4 9.2 -5.3 6.5 13.3
Philippine Export 7,376 7,728 8,087 8,404 8,453 7,909 4.8 4.7 3.9 0.6 -6.4
Import 7,982 9,145 9,581 9,269 10,144 10,200 14.6 4.8 -3.3 9.4 0.6
Balance -606 -1,417 -1,493 -865 -1,691 -2,291 133.9 5.4 -42.0 95.4 35.5
Vietnam Export 3,709 4,315 4,623 5,036 11,136 8,317 16.3 7.1 8.9 121.1 -25.3
Import 14,868 17,488 20,268 24,657 30,219 15,564 17.6 15.9 21.7 22.6 -48.5
Balance -11,159 -13,172 -15,645 -19,620 -19,083 -7,247 18.0 18.8 25.4 -2.7 -62.0
ASEAN 6 Export 70,105 75,941 74,940 78,016 83,006 75,546 8.3 -1.3 4.1 6.4 -9.0
Import 105,349 115,469 120,090 124,108 133,693 125,997 9.6 4.0 3.3 7.7 -5.8
Balance -35,244 -39,528 -45,149 -46,092 -50,687 -50,451 12.2 14.2 2.1 10.0 -0.5
India Export 19,250 21,542 22,106 21,842 21,606 21,530 11.9 2.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.4
Import 29,533 36,155 40,513 41,845 45,244 44,741 22.4 12.1 3.3 8.1 -1.1
Balance -10,283 -14,612 -18,407 -20,003 -23,638 -23,211 42.1 26.0 8.7 18.2 -1.8
Australia Export 21,798 27,626 31,160 26,130 26,582 25,038 26.7 12.8 -16.1 1.7 -5.8
Import 8,583 10,243 9,567 9,272 10,672 10,862 19.3 -6.6 -3.1 15.1 1.8
Balance 13,215 17,383 21,594 16,858 15,910 14,176 31.5 24.2 -21.9 -5.6 -10.9
Canada Export 249,105 281,292 292,651 301,610 312,421 280,327 12.9 4.0 3.1 3.6 -10.3
Import 277,648 315,325 324,264 332,553 347,798 295,191 13.6 2.8 2.6 4.6 -15.1
Balance -28,543 -34,033 -31,614 -30,943 -35,377 -14,864 19.2 -7.1 -2.1 14.3 -58.0
Mexico Export 163,473 196,287 215,907 226,079 240,249 236,377 20.1 10.0 4.7 6.3 -1.6
Import 229,908 262,873 277,694 280,529 294,074 294,741 14.3 5.6 1.0 4.8 0.2
Balance -66,435 -66,586 -61,787 -54,450 -53,825 -58,364 0.2 -7.2 -11.9 -1.1 8.4
Brazil Export 35,425 43,019 43,807 44,119 42,429 31,666 21.4 1.8 0.7 -3.8 -25.4
Import 23,976 31,737 32,126 27,634 30,537 27,405 32.4 1.2 -14.0 10.5 -10.3
Balance 11,449 11,282 11,681 16,485 11,892 4,261 -1.5 3.5 41.1 -27.9 -64.2
Saudi Arabia Export 11,556 13,924 17,967 18,957 18,705 19,690 20.5 29.0 5.5 -1.3 5.3
Import 31,413 47,476 55,667 51,807 47,041 22,081 51.1 17.3 -6.9 -9.2 -53.1
Balance -19,857 -33,553 -37,700 -32,850 -28,336 -2,391 69.0 12.4 -12.9 -13.7 -91.6
Nigeria Export 4,068 4,905 5,030 6,392 5,968 3,410 20.6 2.5 27.1 -6.6 -42.9
Import 30,516 33,854 19,014 11,724 3,839 1,961 10.9 -43.8 -38.3 -67.3 -48.9
Balance -26,448 -28,949 -13,985 -5,332 2,129 1,449 9.5 -51.7 -61.9 -139.9 -31.9
Euro Area Export 176,587 196,310 193,965 201,392 205,456 201,392 11.2 -1.2 3.8 2.0 -2.0
Import 242,215 285,023 294,445 331,598 326,994 331,598 17.7 3.3 12.6 -1.4 1.4
Balance -65,629 -88,712 -100,481 -130,206 -121,538 -130,206 35.2 13.3 29.6 -6.7 7.1
France Export 26,969 27,857 30,811 31,745 31,301 30,077 3.3 10.6 3.0 -1.4 -3.9
Import 38,355 40,049 41,647 45,708 46,874 47,644 4.4 4.0 9.8 2.6 1.6
Balance -11,386 -12,192 -10,835 -13,963 -15,573 -17,567 7.1 -11.1 28.9 11.5 12.8
Germany Export 48,161 49,294 48,801 47,362 49,363 49,947 2.4 -1.0 -2.9 4.2 1.2
Import 82,429 98,684 109,226 114,345 123,260 124,139 19.7 10.7 4.7 7.8 0.7
Balance -34,268 -49,390 -60,425 -66,983 -73,897 -74,192 44.1 22.3 10.9 10.3 0.4
Italy Export 14,219 16,038 16,097 16,755 16,968 16,249 12.8 0.4 4.1 1.3 -4.2
Import 28,505 33,974 36,965 38,692 42,115 44,005 19.2 8.8 4.7 8.8 4.5
Balance -14,286 -17,936 -20,868 -21,937 -25,147 -27,756 25.6 16.3 5.1 14.6 10.4
Netherland Export 34,939 42,227 40,619 42,572 43,075 40,706 20.9 -3.8 4.8 1.2 -5.5
Import 19,055 23,455 22,260 18,231 20,818 16,752 23.1 -5.1 -18.1 14.2 -19.5
Balance 15,884 18,772 18,359 24,341 22,257 23,954 18.2 -2.2 32.6 -8.6 7.6
Spain Export 10,178 11,032 9,552 10,241 10,200 10,249 8.4 -13.4 7.2 -0.4 0.5
Import 8,553 11,018 11,768 11,677 14,416 14,090 28.8 6.8 -0.8 23.5 -2.3
Balance 1,625 14 -2,216 -1,436 -4,216 -3,841 -99.2 -35.2 193.6 -8.9
UK Export 48,414 56,033 54,860 47,353 53,823 56,353 15.7 -2.1 -13.7 13.7 4.7
Import 49,775 51,263 55,003 52,817 54,392 57,805 3.0 7.3 -4.0 3.0 6.3
Balance -1,362 4,771 -144 -5,464 -569 -1,452
Russia Export 6,006 8,318 10,695 11,137 10,753 7,087 38.5 28.6 4.1 -3.4 -34.1
Import 25,691 34,619 29,379 27,086 23,653 16,562 34.8 -15.1 -7.8 -12.7 -30.0
Balance -19,685 -26,301 -18,684 -15,950 -12,900 -9,475 33.6 -29.0 -14.6 -19.1 -26.6



Reference

March 16 Economics and Trade Bulletin

Conclusions
• In 2014, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased by
7.5 percent year-on-year to $342.6 billion, a new record. In the
first eight months of 2015, the U.S. trade deficit in goods with
China totaled $237.3 billion, a 9.7 percent increase year-onyear.
Over the same period, U.S. deficit with China in advanced
technology products reached $72.7 billion. China stalled
on liberalizing key sectors in which the United States is competitive
globally, such as services.
• As a consequence of domestic economic weakness, China’s stated
rebalancing policies appear to have been put on hold. Instead,
fearful of a protracted slowdown, the Chinese government
has been intervening in various sectors of the economy,
including the stock market. However, the government’s intervention,
which failed to arrest the stock market’s fall and stabilize
the economy, undermined public confidence in the ability
of China’s policymakers to successfully manage the economy.
• Although it has been ten years since China
moved the renminbi
(RMB) to a managed float,
the government continues to
intervene in foreign exchange markets. For the first half of
2015 the government has prevented the RMB from depreciating,
seeking its inclusion in the International Monetary
Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies.
However, on August 11, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly
devalued the RMB, giving rise to fears among observers
and policymakers that the economic slowdown was becoming
entrenched.
• The U.S. government’s efforts to address tensions in the U.S.-
China relationship through bilateral dialogue continue to yield
limited results. The latest Strategic and Economic Dialogue
concluded with some progress on environmental and financial
issues, but reached an impasse in addressing fundamental
strategic and economic issues such as cybersecurity, anticorruption
cooperation, and investment barriers to foreign
firms in many industries.
• President
Xi came to the United States in September on a
state visit, and although Presidents Obama and Xi discussed
several issues of concern, including commercial cyber espionage
by Chinese actors, there were few significant breakthroughs.
Among outcomes were the statements by the two presidents
that neither country will engage in cyber espionage (though
China continued to deny any involvement in commercial cyber

theft) and commitments to enhance cooperation on combatting
climate change.
• China’s adherence to the World Trade Organization principles
and its Protocol of Accession remains spotty. Most recently, the
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has engaged China
over a program that provides
export subsidies considered illegal
by the World Trade Organization to businesses in seven
critical industries.
• China launched two new development institutions:
the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development
Bank. I
n addition to boosting China’s economy by creating export
opportunities for its companies, the new banks aim to extend
China’s role in the international economic order, potentially
challenging established multilateral development institutions.

Section 2: Foreign Investment Climate in China
Although China has been a major destination for global foreign
direct investment (FDI) over the past decade, it maintains the most
restrictive FDI regime among all Organization for Economic Co-Operation
and Development (OECD) and G20 countries, according to
the OECD. The U.S. Department of State estimates that in addition
t
o over 1,000 rules and regulatory documents related to FDI
in China issued by central government ministries, local legislatures
and governments also enact their own restrictive rules and regulations
on foreign investments in their jurisdictions. Further, Chinese
government administrators seek to ensure i
nbound FDI supports
industrial policy goals—
designed to bolster the development
of domestic industries and the creation of national champions
—by
identifying different industries as desirable for or restricted from
foreign investment. Taken together, these laws and policies—and
uncertain application thereof—create a complicated, opaque, and
unfavorable environment for foreign investment.

As a result of this restrictive legal and regulatory environment,
the foreign investment climate in China is
deteriorating. Though
the majority of U.S. firms still consider China a profitable market,
optimism about future operations and profitability there is waning.
Foreign companies felt the least welcome in sectors where China’s
industrial policies favor domestic companies and authorities impose
localization requirements. Some of the problems highlighted by foreign
companies are the lack of market access in certain sectors and
the conditioning of market access on the transfer of technology, intellectual
property (IP), or know-how to local competitors.

China primarily maintains national-level market access restrictions
through a Foreign Investment Catalogue, though local governments
frequently employ region- or industry-specific Catalogues, further
restricting access. Though Chinese authorities released an updated
version of the Foreign Investment Catalogue in 2015 that reduced
the number of sectors where foreign investment is restricted and
prohibited, industries the Chinese government has long sought to
nurture as national champions—such as automobiles and healthcare—
saw heightened restrictions.
VerDate Sep