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China trade in 2015 ASEAN

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia

Philippine

Vietnam

Singapore

Myanmar



[ASEAN]
Since 2013, ASEAN bacame the net importer from China. In 2015, ASEAN's total trade drficit against China mounted to 82,812 million$. Since 2012, ASEAN10 became net importer against China. China is enjoying very big trade surplus evry year. This trend will continue in the future.
The most miserable situation is Vietnam. Vietnam has very few items to export to China, but has imported big amount from China. Vietnam is rhe biggest importer since 2013 in ASEAN countries, but exporrted only 29,842 mil US$ in 2015.
The position of Indonesia is getting miserable. in 2012 Indonesia exported 31,920 million US$, but in 2015 Indonesia exported only 19,888 mil US$. On the other hand, import from China increased 34,289 (2012)to 39,059(2014) million US$, in 2015 still maintained 34,342 million$. The trade deficit of Indonesia was 14,454 million$ in 2015. Where is 'win-win' situation. Winner is China and miserable loser is Indomesia.

Indonesia has very weak manufacturing industry and could not compete with the imports from China. Indonesia can not export energy resources any more. The past Indonesian goverment had not been aware of its difficult position..Thailand, Malaysia and Phillipines are similar. China import electronics parts from these countries had been getting less and less evry year, because China has establishing parts factories in China. Rubber and palm oil will not increase so much. Real difficulty is awaiting in these countries. China will continue exploiting its ASEAN neighbors both in trade and territory.

Thailand)

The export from Thailand to China have been decreasing every year since 2011 to 2015. The export from Thailand in 2015, was 37,159 million$, decreased -3.2% compared with in 2014. On the other hand China had increased export to Thailand 38,293 million$+11.7% in 2015. This trend that China's "increasing exports and decreasing imports" had continued for several years. Thailand's export, the biggesr item is XVI (Machinery & electronics), in 2011=18,296 milUS$ to 15,095 milUS$ in 2015, decreased -17.5%. The same item, China increased from 10,145(2011) to 15,144(2015) million$, +49.2% in the same period.
Thailand have exported computor parts and electronic parts. Hwever China have assembled such kind of parts and domestically China constructed parts factories also, had exported its completed products to other countries. So export of Thailand have decreased year by year. This tendency will not change in the future.

The 2nd biggest item is VII (Rubber & Plastics), The peak year was 2011=10,066 milUS$, but in 2015=7,558 mil US$, also decreased -15.0%. This is very serious for the rubber farmers of Southern Districts in Thailand. Even though car production of China have been incraseing so far. The price of rubber in the international market have been declined recently

The 3rd biggest item is II (vegetable products which including sugar, palm oil and rice)which have been increasing steadily, but in 2015=-1.6%. This item can not increase so much in the future.

The 4th item is VI(Chemical products) in 2015, 2,077 million$ which decreased -32.0% compared with 2014. China is the large manufacturer of chemicala, so Thailand has not much competitiveness. Totally Thailand can not increase export to China in the future, and increase import from China under 'win-win' situation. But the winner is always China.

Table T1
The import of China from Thailand (1mil $, %, Cif)

(Import from China)

The China's biggest export item is XVI (Machinery,Electronics) ,but smart-phone, PC and other assebled goods are the major items. Thailand should introduce such an assebleing industries.

In 2016, Sony will open the assebling line "smart phone" at Pathom Thani factory.This kind of manufacturing will help the dvelopment of industry of Thailand. Chinese exports are all this type of "low-technology" goods.

The 2nd largest item is XV (Base metal). Thailand need not import so big amount of "steel"

Except investment machinery (equipment) Thailand decrease import from abroad. The industrialisation had been stagnated under Thaksin regime. Because he would not decrease the population of farmaers. He wanted huge number of farmers staying in the Isaan area..


Table T2, The export of China to Thailand (1mil,$, %, Fob)

Chinese Custom Statistics

Table T3, Trade balance between China and Thailand (million,$, %)

Malaysia

The export from Malaysia, 67.5% is XVI (mahinary and electronics), computor parts , IC, etc,, but total amount is remain stable or decreasing year by year. In 2011, Malaysia exported 62,145 million$ to China, but in 2015 decreased to 53,300 million$, 14.2%.
VI84(machinery, including computor parts) in 2011=4,575 million$, in 2015=3,323million$ decreased -27.4%. XVI・85, (electric parts and electronics), in 2011=34,385 million$, in 2015=32,559million$, decreased -5.3%. Both items will not increase in the future, because in China, electronics parts industries are investing significantly, as the result, import will be decreaseing steadly. This is the same tendency of Thailand.

The 2nd biggest item is V (oil and mineral goods), in 2015=6,965 million$ increased 3.6% compared with 2014. But Malaysia can not export crude oil much more in the future. Recently the price of crude oil is nose diving, so Malaysia is suffering.

The 3rd biggest item is VII(rubber and plastics) in 2015=2,729 million$, decreased significantly -48.2% compared with 2011, 5,269 million$.

The 4th item is III(vegetable oil=mostly palm oil), in 2015=1,781 milUS$, -33.4% compared with 2014. In 2011, the amount was=4,602milUS$, decreased -61.3%. Big decrease. Rubber, Palm oil and Crude Oil, these 3 items are still very important items for Malaysia but they can not support the economy of Malaysia any more in the future.

As the total of Chinese import from Malaysia decreased -4.2%, in 2015, but electoronics parts maintains +1.2%, so the export of Malaysia will not collapse soon. But in the future, its position will not be guaranteed.

The export of China to Malaysia (Table M2 below)

China exported to Malaysia in 2015, decreased -5.1% to 43,990 million$. .Textile +3.5%, Base metal-18.5%, machinery and electronics -0.3%. But In the past Malaysia was a good customer for China..

The trade balance is in favour of Malaysia, but the surplus is decreasing year by year (Table M3), The surplus of Malaysia had decreasd significantly from 34,225(2011)million$ to 9,310 (2015)million$.


Table M1, Import of China from Malaysia (millionUS$, %, CIF)

Table M2, The export of China to Malaysia (millionUS$, %, Fob)

Table M3, Trade balance between China and Malaysia (millionUS,$, %,)

Indonesia

The Total export from Indonesia to China in 2015 was 19,888 million US$, decreased -18.9% from 2014.
The largest item Indonesian exports to China is V　(Oil ,Coal & Minerals, share 35.3%) 7,021 million$ which decreased -21.7%.
Indonesia is one of the region’s largest crude oil and coal exporters , but recently Indonesia can not export latge volume of crude oil and the price of oil had fallen drastically.

The. 2nd largest item was III(Vegetable and animal oil, mostly palm oil)=3,065milUS$, slightly increased +2.9%.
The 3rd item was XVI(macinery & elecric)=1,563 milUS$, increased only +0.4%.
The 4th item was X(Pulp), =1,539 mil US$, increased significantly +12.4%, by destroying natural forest.

The 5th item was Vi(Chemicals, fertilisers)=1,314 mil US$, greatly decreased -48.7 5%.o

Indonesian export to China, nearly 80% is primary products, manufacturing products are very small.This trade pattern had not changed largely for more than decades.
The reason is because Indonesian government had neglected to increase the mnaufacuring industries. In other words foreign manufacturing companies had avoided investing in Indonesia. Indonesian government always said that it welcomes the foreign investment, but generally failed.

On the other hand Indonesian import from China is 34,343 million$, decreased -12.1% The major import items were manufactured goods which were of "Low-tech industry". Further more Indpnesoa has imported significant volume of Chinese commodities through Singapore, even thogh the number has not been clear.

If indonesian goverment will be more serious to substitute these imports, Imdonesian economy will improve significantly. The wicked politicians, officials and merchants were responsible for the currrent situations.

If Indonesia will not change in the future, Indonesia will be eaten up by China. The Indonesia government keeps 'tight-money' policy to restrict import, and the effect was seen slightly (-12.5%) in 2015, but total exporst contracted -32.8%.

The trade balane between two countries in 2015 (table3) was 14,454 million$. Indonesia were losing more than 14 billion$ for recent 2 year to China.

Table Id 1 China’s Import(CIF) from Indonesia, 1 million$,%

Table Id 2 China’s Export(FOB) to Indonesia, 1 million$,%