米国経済2



米国貿易戦争

 

2018-12-7 What Explains the Trade Deficit Hitting a Decade-High?

 

Tax-cut-driven domestic demand and a potentially tariff-related fall in exports contribute to wider gap

 Shipping containers sit stacked at the Port of New Orleans in September. Imports to the U.S. grew 0.2% in October, while exports edged down 0.1% the same month.

Shipping containers sit stacked at the Port of New Orleans in September. Imports to the U.S. grew 0.2% in October, while exports edged down 0.1% the same month.  Photo:  Alex Flynn/Bloomberg News 

 

By Sharon Nunn

Updated Dec. 6, 2018 1:08 p.m. ET

 

WASHINGTON—The U.S. trade deficit reached its highest level in 10 years in October, led in part by tax-cut-driven domestic demand and a potentially tariff-related fall in exports.

 

The foreign-trade gap in goods and services rose 1.7% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $55.5 billion in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday. This is the largest deficit since October 2008. Imports grew 0.2% in October, while exports edged down 0.1%. The nonoil deficit is at a record level and “rising steadily,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Economics.

“Pumping up domestic demand with fiscal easing and picking fights with trading partners does that,” Mr. Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients.

 

U.S. Household Net Worth Rose by $2.07 Trillion in 3rd Quarter December 6, 2018 

U.S. Service-Sector Growth Accelerates in November December 6, 2018 

U.S. Productivity Revised Upward to 2.3% in Third Quarter December 6, 2018 

U.S. Private Sector Adds 179,000 Jobs in November December 6, 2018 

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The jump in imports was driven by ramped-up demand in the U.S. Americans have more money in their pockets after the Trump administration’s late-2017 tax cuts took effect at the beginning of this year, and when Americans shop, they tend to buy foreign-made goods.

 

On top of that, American wholesalers and manufacturers have experienced supply constraints this year, partly stemming from a shortage of qualified truck drivers to move goods around the country. This may encourage further importing by domestic buyers.

The drop in exports, meanwhile, was partly driven by a decline in soybean exports, which had contributed significantly to economic growth this year following a surge of exported soybeans ahead of looming tariffs.

 

In an attempt to close the widening trade gap, the Trump administration placed tariffs on billions of dollars of foreign-made products, including steel and solar panels. Foreign countries have placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-made products, though U.S. and Chinese officials recently agreed to hold off on any further trade barriers for 90 days while they negotiate.

 

October’s exports drop “partly reflects the continued drop-back in soybean shipments to China following the imposition of tariffs.…But there has also been a more general collapse in overall goods exports to China, which have now fallen by 30% over the past 12 months,” said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

 

The deficit could worsen as the dollar strengthens, making U.S.-produced products more expensive to foreign buyers. Economic growth globally appears to be cooling, which could also hamper demand from abroad.

 

International trade data can be volatile from month to month. In the first 10 months of 2018, the overall trade deficit increased 11.4% in October when compared with the same period in 2017.

 

Historically speaking, the U.S. imports more good than it exports, but runs a modest trade surplus for services. Economists attribute the chronic trade deficit the U.S. has faced for decades to Americans consuming more than they produce relative to the rest of the world’s economies.







トランプ大統領は就任以来、「アメリカ・ファースト」政策を打ち出している。その内容は年々4,500億ドルにも及ぶ経常収支の赤字を減らしたいということに尽きる。その前に年間7千億ドルを超える貿易赤字を減らさなければならない。そのためには輸入を減らして輸出を増やさなければならない。


表1.主要国の経常収支(単位:10億ドル)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
United States -373 -431 -445 -426 -350 -374 -435 -452 -466
Germany 197 192 230 249 252 291 301 297 297
France -22 -22 -28 -33 -25 -36 -11 -30 -37
Italy -41 -73 -68 -7 21 41 28 50 56
Japan 145 221 130 60 46 37 134 188 195
United Kingdom -93 -92 -62 -113 -152 -161 -150 -154 -107
Netherlands 50 62 81 90 85 76 66 66 81
Spain -64 -56 -47 -3 21 15 14 24 22
Portugal -25 -24 -15 -4 4 0 0 1 1
Taiwan 41 37 38 44 51 62 75 72 80
Korea 34 29 19 51 81 84 106 99 78
Canada -40 -58 -50 -66 -59 -43 -56 -49 -49
China 243.3 237.8 136.1 215.4 148.2 236 304.2 196.4 162.5
India -38.4 -47.9 -76.4 -87.8 -32.3 -26.8 -22.1 -15.2 -33.7
ASEAN5 66.1 45.4 49.4 6.4 -3.6 22.3 30.8 45.8 36.9
Russia 20.4 67.5 97.3 71.3 33.4 57.5 68.8 25.5 41.5
Mexico -8.6 -5.8 -13.2 -15.8 -21.1 -23.1 -28.8 -23 -19.8



米国の最も大きい貿易赤字国は中国である。2016年においては貿易赤字総額7500億ドルに及ぶ。国別内訳は、中国だ断然トップで3470億ドル(46.2%)を占めている。次いで、日本は689億ドル、3位はドイツの649億ドル、4位はメキシコは632億ドル。カナダは112億ドル。米国とメキシコとカナダはNAFTA(北米貿易協定)を締結し、一時期中断されたが2018年10月には復活している。

アメリカはトランプ政権になってから輸出入とも増え続け、貿易収支は2018年1-7月においても拡大している。全体で見ると輸出は9.6%増えたが、輸入も9.3%増えている。これでは貿易赤字は減らない。中国向けは2018年1-7月においては輸出が8.6%増えたものの輸入も8.4%増えている。

表2、アメリカと主要国との貿易バランス(単位;100万ドル、%)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017.7m 2018.7m 14/13 15/14 16/15 18/17
World Ttl Export 1,592,784 1,632,639 1,510,303 1,459,643 882,950 967,757 2.5 -7.5 -3.4 9.6
Import 2,294,453 2,374,101 2,272,868 2,209,917 1,337,748 1,462,356 3.5 -4.3 -2.8 9.3
Balance -701,669 -741,462 -762,565 -750,274 -454,798 -494,599 5.7 2.8 -1.6 8.8
Japn Export 65,206 66,827 62,423 63,284 38,493 42,016 2.5 -6.6 1.4 9.2
Import 138,573 134,004 131,364 132,202 78,199 82,101 -3.3 -2.0 0.6 5.0
Balance -73,368 -67,177 -68,942 -68,918 -39,706 -40,085 -8.4 2.6 0.0 1.0
China Export 121,736 123,676 116,072 115,775 68,780 74,705 1.6 -6.1 -0.3 8.6
Import 440,448 466,754 483,245 462,813 273,761 296,635 6.0 3.5 -4.2 8.4
Balance -318,711 -343,078 -367,173 -347,038 -204,981 -221,930 7.6 7.0 -5.5 8.3
Hong Kong Export 42,342 40,858 37,167 34,906 23,251 22,088 -3.5 -9.0 -6.1 -5.0
Import 5,684 5,869 6,796 7,385 4,392 3,834 3.2 15.8 8.7 -12.7
Balance 36,658 34,989 30,371 27,521 18,859 18,254 -4.6 -13.2 -9.4 -3.2
China+HK Export 164,078 164,534 153,239 150,681 92,031 96,793 0.3 -6.9 -1.7 5.2
Import 446,132 472,623 490,040 470,198 278,153 300,469 5.9 3.7 -4.0 8.0
Balance -282,054 -308,089 -336,802 -319,517 -186,122 -203,676 9.2 9.3 -5.1 9.4
Korea Export 41,715 44,471 43,446 42,266 28,570 31,752 6.6 -2.3 -2.7 11.1
Import 62,388 69,518 71,759 69,932 41,323 41,638 11.4 3.2 -2.5 0.8
Balance -20,674 -25,047 -28,313 -27,666 -12,753 -9,886 21.2 13.0 -2.3 -22.5
Taiwan Export 25,472 26,670 25,860 28,045 14,613 16,276 4.7 -3.0 8.4 11.4
Import 37,940 40,518 40,908 39,313 24,035 25,586 6.8 1.0 -3.9 6.5
Balance -12,468 -13,848 -15,048 -11,268 -9,422 -9,310 11.1 8.7 -25.1 -1.2
Singapore Export 30,672 30,237 28,472 26,868 17,106 19,584 -1.4 -5.8 -5.6 14.5
Import 17,843 16,426 18,268 17,801 11,028 16,355 -7.9 11.2 -2.6 48.3
Balance 12,829 13,811 10,205 9,067 6,078 3,229 7.7 -26.1 -11.1 -46.9
Indonesia Export 9,100 8,284 7,121 6,037 3,812 4,430 -9.0 -14.0 -15.2 16.2
Import 18,877 19,361 19,602 19,203 11,936 12,113 2.6 1.2 -2.0 1.5
Balance -9,777 -11,077 -12,481 -13,166 -8,124 -7,683 13.3 12.7 5.5 -5.4
Malaysia Export 13,007 13,086 12,277 11,867 7,916 7,585 0.6 -6.2 -3.3 -4.2
Import 27,289 30,420 33,971 36,687 21,082 22,682 11.5 11.7 8.0 7.6
Balance -14,282 -17,334 -21,694 -24,820 -13,166 -15,097 21.4 25.1 14.4 14.7
Thailand Export 11,797 11,810 11,231 10,573 6,188 7,193 0.1 -4.9 -5.9 16.2
Import 26,173 27,123 28,632 29,493 17,521 18,411 3.6 5.6 3.0 5.1
Balance -14,376 -15,313 -17,401 -18,920 -11,333 -11,218 6.5 13.6 8.7 -1.0
Philippine Export 8,404 8,453 4,908 8,263 4,644 4,954 0.6 -41.9 68.4 6.7
Import 9,269 10,144 10,234 10,047 6,541 7,025 9.4 0.9 -1.8 7.4
Balance -865 -1,691 -5,326 -1,784 -1,897 -2,071 95.4 214.9 -66.5 9.2
ASEAN 5 Export 72,980 71,870 64,009 63,608 39,666 43,746 6.4 -14.3 68.4 10.3
Import 99,451 103,474 110,705 113,231 68,108 76,586 7.7 11.2 -1.8 12.4
Balance -26,472 -31,604 -46,697 -49,623 -28,442 -32,840 10.0 53.2 -66.5 15.5
India Export 21,842 21,606 21,452 21,689 14,289 18,130 -1.1 -0.7 1.1 26.9
Import 41,845 45,244 44,792 45,998 27,879 31,423 8.1 -1.0 2.7 12.7
Balance -20,003 -23,638 -23,340 -24,309 -13,590 -13,293 18.2 -1.3 4.2 -2.2
Australia Export 26,130 26,582 25,036 22,225 13,954 14,705 1.7 -5.8 -11.2 5.4
Import 9,272 10,672 10,894 9,534 4,392 5,754 15.1 2.1 -12.5 31.0
Balance 16,858 15,910 14,142 12,691 9,562 8,951 -5.6 -11.1 -10.3 -6.4
Canada Export 301,610 312,421 280,609 266,827 161,447 175,494 3.6 -10.2 -4.9 8.7
Import 332,553 347,798 296,256 278,067 173,041 186,677 4.6 -14.8 -6.1 7.9
Balance -30,943 -35,377 -15,647 -11,240 -11,594 -11,183 14.3 -55.8 -28.2 -3.5
Mexico Export 226,079 240,249 235,745 230,959 138,904 153,982 6.3 -1.9 -2.0 10.9
Import 280,529 294,074 296,408 294,151 179,810 197,562 4.8 0.8 -0.8 9.9
Balance -54,450 -53,825 -60,663 -63,192 -40,906 -43,580 -1.1 12.7 4.2 6.5
Brazil Export 44,119 42,429 31,651 30,297 20,329 22,314 -3.8 -25.4 -4.3 9.8
Import 27,634 30,537 27,468 26,178 16,541 17,364 10.5 -10.0 -4.7 5.0
Balance 16,485 11,892 4,182 4,119 3,788 4,950 -27.9 -64.8 -1.5 30.7
Columbia Export 18,392 20,107 16,287 13,099 7,920 8,206 9.3 -19.0 -19.6 3.6
Import 21,626 18,300 14,075 13,796 7,987 8,322 -15.4 -23.1 -2.0 4.2
Balance -3,234 1,807 2,212 -697 -67 -116 -155.9 22.4 -131.5 73.1
Venezuela Export 13,204 11,138 8,346 5,255 2,576 3,284 -15.6 -25.1 -37.0 27.5
Import 31,997 30,219 15,584 10,892 7,865 7,111 -5.6 -48.4 -30.1 -9.6
Balance -18,794 -19,081 -7,238 -5,697 -5,289 -3,827 1.5 -62.1 -22.0 -27.6
Saudi Arabia Export 18,957 18,705 19,738 18,023 9,965 8,102 -1.3 5.5 -8.7 -18.7
Import 51,807 47,041 22,081 16,926 12,710 12,212 -9.2 -53.1 -23.3 -3.9
Balance -32,850 -28,336 -2,343 1,097 -2,745 -4,110 -13.7 -91.7 -146.8 49.7
Belgium Export 31,941 34,790 34,160 32,271 17,473 18,682 8.9 -1.8 -5.5 6.9
Import 19,021 20,885 19,513 17,020 8,643 10,135 9.8 -6.6 -12.8 17.3
Balance 12,920 13,905 14,647 15,251 8,830 8,547 7.6 5.3 4.1 -3.2
France Export 31,745 31,301 30,104 30,941 18,903 20,868 -1.4 -3.8 2.8 10.4
Import 45,708 46,874 47,815 46,765 26,911 30,275 2.6 2.0 -2.2 12.5
Balance -13,963 -15,573 -17,712 -15,824 -8,008 -9,407 11.5 13.7 -10.7 17.5
Germany Export 47,362 49,363 49,971 49,363 30,623 33,755 4.2 1.2 -1.2 10.2
Import 114,345 123,260 124,821 114,227 66,211 73,323 7.8 1.3 -8.5 10.7
Balance -66,983 -73,897 -74,850 -64,864 -35,588 -39,568 10.3 1.3 -13.3 11.2
Ireland Export 6,640 7,806 8,931 9,556 5,785 6,344 17.6 14.4 7.0 9.7
Import 31,496 33,956 39,336 45,504 28,327 33,006 7.8 15.8 15.7 16.5
Balance -24,857 -26,150 -30,405 -35,948 -22,542 -26,662 5.2 16.3 18.2 18.3
Italy Export 16,755 16,968 16,204 16,754 10,670 13,672 1.3 -4.5 3.4 28.1
Import 38,692 42,115 44,159 45,210 27,767 31,714 8.8 4.9 2.4 14.2
Balance -21,937 -25,147 -27,955 -28,456 -17,097 -18,042 14.6 11.2 1.8 5.5
Netherland Export 42,572 43,075 40,196 40,377 24,098 27,978 1.2 -6.7 0.4 16.1
Import 18,231 20,818 16,836 16,152 9,874 12,497 14.2 -19.1 -4.1 26.6
Balance 24,341 22,257 23,361 24,225 14,224 15,481 -8.6 5.0 3.7 8.8
Spain Export 10,241 10,200 10,310 10,373 6,520 7,441 -0.4 1.1 0.6 14.1
Import 11,677 14,416 14,130 13,468 8,658 10,829 23.5 -2.0 -4.7 25.1
Balance -1,436 -4,216 -3,820 -3,095 -2,138 -3,388 193.6 -9.4 -19.0 58.5
UK Export 47,353 53,823 56,115 55,396 31,432 38,829 13.7 4.3 -1.3 23.5
Import 52,817 54,392 57,962 54,326 30,511 34,118 3.0 6.6 -6.3 11.8
Balance -5,464 -569 -1,848 1,070 921 4,711
Sweden Export 4,318 4,340 3,941 3,617 2,068 2,413 0.5 -9.2 -8.2 16.7
Import 9,172 10,266 9,879 9,720 6,034 7,027 11.9 -3.8 -1.6 16.5
Balance -4,854 -5,926 -5,938 -6,103 -3,966 -4,614 22.1 0.2 2.8 16.3
Swizerland Export 28,773 19,799 22,185 22,701 12,660 13,091 -31.2 12.1 2.3 3.4
Import 28,276 12,781 31,397 36,374 20,736 23,852 -54.8 145.7 15.9 15.0
Balance 497 7,018 -9,211 -13,673 -8,076 -10,761 33.2
Russia Export 11,137 10,753 7,087 5,798 3,671 3,937 -3.4 -34.1 -18.2 7.2
Import 27,086 23,653 16,366 14,512 9,716 11,826 -12.7 -30.8 -11.3 21.7
Balance -15,950 -12,900 -9,279 -8,714 -6,045 -7,889 -19.1 -28.1 -6.1 30.5