From semiconductor makers to auto-parts producers, companies are recognizing multinational production networks are vulnerable to disruption. At least concentrating on China is very dangerous, so they are considering to relocate their factories to safer countries. Top page

(Draft) 31 Oct 2020


Good afternoon. Thank you prof. Wasino, honorable scholars and ladies and gentlemen. It’s my great honor to make a talk in front of you. I used to be a professor of Kobe Univ, faculty of economics. At that time I had lectured on the contemporary political economics of Southeast Asia. After retirement I had concentrated on the research of ancient history of Southeast Asia, especially on the history of Srivijaya.  I have published 2 English books on this theme and my name is known in Indonesia as a historian. But Today I will talk about the Current economic and political situation in the world and Indonesia.

Current economic and political situation in the world and Indonesia.

Now the world economy is in confusion under the Pandemic, Wuhan virus or Covid-19, but before this deadly Pandemic, the world economy had been already in long term stagnation. And now the end of ‘Globalization and Neo Liberalism’ is near at hand.  Actually the USA has given up ‘free trade’.

 

Conclusion

1.The result of globalization.  Advanced countries (the USA, West Europe and Japan) had suffered low growth rate, lost GDP share in the world, no income increment, and high unemployment ratio.

2.. Advanced economies are in long term stagnation for nearly 10 years, before this Pandemic, because, the common people had been paid low wage and house hold consumption had been squeezed. As the result advanced economies got into stagnation.

3.After Pandemic , advanced economies would not revive soon. They must call back their companies from China or diversify their factories to the safer and friendly countries.

4. Advanced countries would establish trade barrier to fend off cheap imports from less developed countries.

5. Less developed countries, except China, will have good chance to invite FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and they can develop the manufacturing industries.

6. Indonesia has possibility to invite FDI, because Indonesia has large population and natural resources. Indonesia has good working people, with some experience of manufacturing and educational level is comparatively high. The Indonesian government understands how to improve the investment environment for FDI.

 

(Contents of discussion)

1. Historical view of ‘Globalization and Neo-liberalism’.

2. Nominal GDP share of the world , the Nominal GDP per capita (head) and high unemployment ratio.

3. The result of Neo-liberalism and Globalization, Current economic situation in the world.

 

4. New movement of capital of advanced countries. After the end of current big recession of the world economy.Relocation of factories.

5. Merit of manufacturing compared with agriculture

6.Trade between Indonesia and China. Indonesia can substitute of Chinese imports

7. The prospect of Indonesian future

 

Chapter 1 Historical view of ‘Globalization and Neo-liberalism’.

Historically the world economy had been severely divided between advanced countries and less developed countries. However, recently the position of advanced countries had declined significantly. The common people of the advanced economies are facing not only the deadly Pandemic but also high unemployment, low wage and poverty.  

During this decade, especially since Leman Shock in 2009, advanced countries have suffered low economic growth, or stagnation. On the other hand less developed countries have recorded significant growth. After 2009, Leman Shock, the growth of advanced countries had suffered low growth rate around 1% level or less and cannot see any sign of higher growth, especially west Europe and Japan. (Around+-1%.)

The common people of these countries are anticipating to terminate ‘Globalization and Neo-liberalism’. The ‘free trade system’, had been destroying the economy of advanced countries.

 

Table 1 shows uneven growth of GDP (Gross Domestic Production). West European countries and Japan, GDP growth became nearly 1 per cent before Pandemic. In this year, 2020, OECD estimates that advanced countries will experience -5~-10% growth. They may not recover in the near future.

 

On the other hand especially China had jumped up greatly and some other countries, such as India and Indonesia also recorded higher growth, more than 5 %.

 

Table 1 GDP (real) growth, %

 

2007

2009

2010

2015

2018

2019p

2020

UK, 2015

2.36

-4.85

1.70

2.40

1.30

1.50

-10.1

Germany.2010

3.37

-5.57

3.95

1.50

1.30

0.60

-5.4

Netherlands, 2010

3.70

-3.77

1.33

2.00

2.40

1.70

 

France, 2010

2.36

-2.88

1.89

1.10

1.80

1.50

-9.5

Italy. 2010

1.33

-5.53

4.65

0.80

0.80

0.30

-10.5

Spain. 2010

3.77

-3.57

0.01

3.80

2.40

2.00

 

USA, 2009

1.78

-2.78

2.53

3.10

3.00

2.20

-7.8

Japan, 2011

1.65

-5.42

4.19

1.20

0.30

0.70

-5.8

Korea, 2010

5.46

0.71

6.50

2.80

2.70

2.00

-1.0

Canada, 2007

2.06

-2.95

3.08

0.70

2.00

1.70

-5.8

Mexico,2013

2.28

-5.07

5.13

3.30

2.10

-0.10

-10.2

China, 2010

14.23

9.40

10.64

6.90

6.60

6.10

1.8

Russia, 2016

8.54

-7.82

4.50

-2.00

2.50

1.30

-7.3

India, 2011-12

9.80

8.48

10.26

7.80

6.70

    4.2

-10.2

Indonesia, 2010

6.35

4.70

6.38

4.90

5.20

5.00

-3.0

Source: OECD statistics; the world economy 2020.

 

Chapter 2.-1 Nominal GDP share of the world (Table2)

The Nominal GDP share of the advanced countries was 81.3 in 1995, but in 2018, its share declined to 60.3%. They lost 21%.

The most miserable country is Japan. Japanese share was in 1995, 17.6%, but in 2018, only 5.6 %, less than one third.

 

Euro Area had lost their share too. The share was in 1995, 24.6%, but in 2018 it declined to 16.1%. Even Germany had lost its share from 8.6% to 4.6% during the same term. Other countries had lost 1~2 %.

 

 The United State of America had not lost so much, 24.6 in 1995 and 24.2% in 2018. But the USA had once over 50% share soon after WWII.

 

China, on the contrary has gained amazingly, in 1995 Chinese share was only 2.4% and in 2018 jumped up to 15.8%, No. 2 in the world, 10% bigger than Japan. Japan is No. 3, and Germany is No.4.

(NIES countries, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore had increased only slightly. From 3.4% to 3.5%.)

 

 ASEAN countries has so far increased from 2.0% to 2.7%. Indonesia jumped from 0.8% to 1.2%, biggest gain in ASEAN.

 

India is also expanding its GDP share in 1995, 1.2%, to 3.2% in 2018 by rapid increase of manufacturing industry. Indian government is now making ambitious 5 years program to expand iPhone manufacturing industries. Actually Apple group are shifting their 8 factories from China to India.

 

 

TableWorld Nominal GDP share.

()

 

 

 

 

 

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

Advanced Nations

81.3

79.1

76.2

65.5

606

60.3

 USA

 

24.6

30.3

27.4

22.7

24.4

24.2

  Japan

 

17.6

14.4

10.0

8.6

5.9

5.9

 UK

 

4.3

4.9

5.3

3.7

3.9

3.3

 Germany

8.6

5.8

6.0

5.2

4.5

4.7

 France

5.2

4.0

4.6

4.0

3.3

3.3

2.Euro

 

24.6

19.2

22.2

19.2

15.7

16.1

3.Nies

 

3.4

3.4

3.4

3

3.4

3.5

 Korea

 

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.9

1.9

 Taiwan

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

 Hong Kong

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

 Singapore

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

 China

 

2.4

3.6

4.6

9.2

15.1

15.8

 India

 

1.2

1.4

1.8

2.6

2.8

3.2

ASEAN5

 

2.0

1.5

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.9

 Indonesia

0.8

0.5

0.7

1.1

1.2

1.2

 Thailand

 

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

 Malaysia

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

 Philippines

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

 Vietnam

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

 Russia

 

1.1

0.8

1.7

2.5

1.8

1.9

World Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Chapter 2-2 The Nominal GDP per capita (Appendix Table 4).

During 2001 and 2008, in many countries, Per head GDP so far increased. However after 2008, Leman Shock, Par head GDP of advanced countries had not increased. Around 40 thousand US$.

On the other hand, less developed countries well increased. 

The USA increased recently, especially after Trump administration. His major policy was ‘America First, or strong America again’ and he began to attack China and started decoupling policy.

UK has decided to separate from EU to escape ‘free trade’ regime.

China, GDP had jumped up from 2,645 in 2007 to 9,608 in 2018, nearly 3.6 times bigger in 11 years.

India and Indonesia jumped around double.

from 989 US$ to 2,036 US$ more than double in the same term

In Indonesia also nearly double in the same period, from 1,961 US$ to 3,871 US$. However living conditions of the common people of these countries have not improved so much, because income level is still low..

(About China)

The economic strategy of China had been to invite and opened the gate for foreign manufacturing companies, such as Japan, the USA, Germany, Taiwan and S. Korea. As the result China increased its production capacity and exports. However, the contents of Chinese exports are low technology products, such as textile and assembled electronics, iPhone etc. China can not make sophisticated semi-conductor, so China imports them from Taiwan, Japan, the USA and S.Korea.

The Chinese people did not become rich. Recently Chinese prime minister , Li Keqiang revealed that more than 600 million people’s monthly income is only1,000 Renminbi, nearly equal 140 US$. The majority people of China remain poor. On the other hand high officials of Communist Party became very rich and transferred their money to the USA and Switzerland.

 

Chapter 3  The result of Neo-liberalism and Globalization

 In the advanced countries, income of common people had not increased and consumption of household has been squeezed. That is the cause of long term stagnation, before ‘Pandemic disaster’.

 

    Gross Domestic Production (GDP) is explained by following equation.;

    Production = Investment + Consumption + Exports – Imports +(-)stock

If imports increase, GDP will decrease. If consumption will decrease, GDP will decrease too. If investment increases, GDP will increase, but if consumption will not change, no capitalist would not invest. Consumption is the key of advanced countries.

 

 The main cause of stagnation of advanced countries, the first factor is low priced imports of daily needs. The 2nd factor is lower wage for its workers. The majority of people cannot consume much, due to lower income. This is the cause of low GDP growth of the advanced countries. Before Pandemic, these common people became poor and miserable.

 

Chapter 4  New movement of capital of advanced countries. After the end of current big recession of the world economy.

 

4-1)Now is the last stage of ‘Neo-Liberalism’ and ‘Globalization’.

Neo-Liberalism brought the inequality of people of the advanced countries. Majority of people are getting poorer and miserable. Only a few percent rich people dominate majority of the national wealth.

Since the end of 1970s, Neo-liberalism began to dominate world economy.

Thacherism in Britain, and Reganomics in the USA. Neo-liberalism policy had appeared as the solution of stagflation (stagnation and inflation).

 

The basic policy and philosophy of Neo-liberalism

1) Small government, less tax from rich people. And privatization was promoted.

2) Low wage for working people, and less social welfare for common people.

3) Free import from less-developed countries.

4) Pressure to the trade-unions.

5) Avoiding longer term investment, especially manufacturing industries with large investment. The USA promoted development of big finance companies. Monetarism was advocated. The financial capital (major banks) of the USA now dominates world financial economy. So the money was powered into stock market, 2 or 4 times larger than GDP, which was the cause of ‘bubble economy’, Leman Shock in 2009 and current situation of 2020.

 

4-2) The effect of ‘free trade’ had been so strong in the advanced countries and they began to counter attack.

China has been the biggest beneficiary of the globalization, or free trade and became the No. 2 economy of the world. However, Chinese Government recently became aggressive and got illusion that they can dominate the whole world. “One band one road” policy is the typical manifest of China. But the real economic power of China is not so strong as they think.

Now the conflict with the USA and other advanced countries became apparent and the USA began to counter attack against China. Trump government now started decoupling policy with China, and the USA started to establish the alternative source of imports.

 

In 2019, the total deficit of Balance of payment of the USA was 480.2 billion US$. In 2019, the USA decreased import from China 12.7%. USA trade deficit with China was 419.6 billion$ in 2018 and 344.9 billion$ in 2019.(Annex Table 1 & 2)

.

 

4-3). Structural change of the world economy.

In future, after the end of the Pandemic (Wuhan virus), the world economy will be less globalized than before. Even though, economic recovery may be slow, the economic structure also will be changed. Major banks will lose their power, after burst of bubble.

In the past, almost all the governments of the advanced countries had supported the free trade systems, but now these countries have to establish some barriers to trade and re-locate some portion of manufacturing industries.

Recently president Trump is insisting US companies should relocate factories from China. From semiconductors makers to auto-parts producers, they are recognizing that existing production networks are not stable and risky. Especially concentrating on China is very dangerous, because China intends to control the world economy.

However the USA understands that if all of the factories go back to the USA, they may face difficulty, because the wage level of American workers is still higher and the USA had lost many of its manufacturing factories. So Trump suggests they should ‘relocate’ to the safer and friendly countries. Now is the chance the global capitalism will be ‘re-balanced’.

Less developed countries have good opportunity to introduce more manufacturing industries now. India, Vietnam and possibly Indonesia have started their manufacturing strategy. Indonesia government is arranging good investment environment.

 Especially Indonesia will have good chance, because Indonesia has plenty of good working force and natural resources. Indonesia has some experience of manufacturing industries, such as cloth making, steel making, automobile assembling and electronics.

4-4). After the end of current big recession of the world economy.

Advanced countries, under the restriction of free trade, the working class will get more jobs and unemployment ratio will be improved, which means that every advanced country will decrease imports and re-start their manufacturing daily needs products.

 

In less developed countries manufacturing industries will develops by using FDI(Foreign Direct Investment). But foreign companies will be more selective to invest in these countries. Foreign companies will request better environment for investment.

 

The request of foreign companies to the less developed countries.

To the government;

Clean, transparent and efficient administration, which are necessary to improve management cost, in case of Indonesia, management cost has been relatively high and time consuming.

 

To the employees

1) Manufacturing skill is requested to make better quality of products, but these high skills will be acquired on the job training (OJT).

2) Skill of communication: English language and the basic skill of computer and internet.

3) Longer time employment: Workers can acquire working know-how and skill of manufacturing through longer term working experience.

 

Chapter 5. Merit of manufacturing compared with agriculture

 

Income is of manufacturing industries usually higher than that of agriculture, owing to the difference of productivity.

According to experience, the difference of productivity between manufacturing and agriculture would be more than three times. In case of Thailand, the difference is 8 times. The development of manufacturing industries would affect the agriculture section, and the income of farmers would be improved following manufacturing development.

But agriculture is very important in Indonesia. Agriculture sector should increase productivity and diversify its products. Village life is also very important for human being. We can live peacefully in village and with large family.

 

 

Table 3. Agriculture and Manufacturing in Indonesia

 

 

 

 

 

2000

 

2010

 

2015

 

2018

 

Agriculture

Labour(1000)

40,677

 

41,495

 

37,750

 

35,703

 

 

Output,BilRp

216.8

 

956.1

 

1,555.2

 

1,900.3

 

 

1000Rp/head

5.330

100

23,041

100

41,197

100

53,225

100

Manufactrng

Labour(1000)

11,6420

 

13,824

 

15,621

 

18,251

 

 

Output,BilRp

385.6

 

1,512.8

 

2,418.9

 

2,947.3

 

 

1000Rp/head

33,121

621

109,433

475

154,849

376

161,487

303

(Source) Key Indicators 2019; ADB

 

 

 

 

 

 

5-1Economic structure of Indonesia

For these years, the structure of GDP of Indonesia has not changed so much. The agricultural sector has not changed, the industrial sector decreased and the service sector increased. However much of service sector provided ‘informal jobs’ to workers. The ‘information’ sector, the per head income is biggest, but the number of job is still limited.

 

Table 4. GDP of Indonesia (% of GDP

 

1. GDP(current price) %

2000

2005

2010

2015

2017

2018

               Agriculture

15.6

13.1

14.3

13.9

13.7

13.3

               Industries

45.9

46.5

43.9

41.3

41

41.4

               Services

38.5

40.3

41.8

44.7

45.4

45.2

2.Output by sector (million)

2000

2005

2010

2015

2017

2018

Agriculture

216,800

364,200

956,100

1,555,200

1,787,300

1,900,300

Manufacturing

385,600

760,400

1,512,800

2,418,900

2,739,700

2,947,300

Information

18,300

70,400

256,000

406,000

513,700

559,100

Labor Force (1000)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agriculture

40,677

41,310

41,495

37,750

35,925

35,703

Manufacturing

11,642

11,953

13,824

15,538

17,559

18,251

Information

 

 

 

541

819

895

Agriculture(Million Rp/head)

5.330

8.816

23.041

41.197

49.751

53.225

Manufacturing

33.121

63.616

109.433

155.676

156.028

161.487

Information

 

 

 

750.462

627.228

624.693

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Many foreign manufacturing companies US, Japanese, Taiwanese etc.will move to Indonesia sooner or later.  Indonesia can develop manufacturing industries considerably and at least can substitute imports of low technology products from China.

 

5-2) What Indonesian can do in manufacturing industries?

Assembling industries: clothing, apparel, electronics, PC, iPhone

Auto parts, battery for automobile, electric bicycle, Compact passenger automobiles, EV cars.

 

Chapter6.Trade between Indonesia and China.

Indonesia can replace Chinese imports easily.

Indonesia imports manufacturing goods from China, and exports mainly the primary products and natural resources. Manufacturing goods are assembled with low technology, which will be easily replaced by Indonesian workers.

 

In 2019, Indonesia imported from China, 45,790 million US$, and exported to China,34,060 million US$, and trade imbalance with China was 11,729 million US$. The major imported items from China, are ‘electrical machinery and textile and base metals. (Table 5-1 &2).

 

Indonesia exports to China mainly natural resources, mineral ore, pulp and palm oil (recently increased steel).

If Indonesia can establish manufacturing industries, Indonesia can export clothing, sports shoes, auto-parts, personal computers and iPhones to the USA and other countries, because the USA wants to change its supply source from China to other countries.

 

Table 5-1) Indonesian Imports from China (million US$)

 

 

2011

2018

2019

19/18

VI

Chemicals, fertilizers

2,552

4,196

3,849

-8.3

VII

Plastics, rubber

967

1,961

2,168

10.6

XI

Textile, clothing, silk

3,292

5,063

5,091

0.6

XIII

Stone, glass, ceramic

465

975

2,047

109.9

XV

Base metals

2,805

6,011

5,995

-0.3

72

Iron & Steel

828

2,194

2,049

-6.6

XVI

Machinery, Electronics

9,909

16,157

17,543

8.6

84

Machinery & parts

5,584

7,974

8,721

9.4

85

Electrical machinery, parts

4,325

8,182

8,822

7.8

XVII

Vehicles, aircraft, vessels

1,598

1,867

1,807

-3.2

XVIII

Optical, clocks, musical insr

1,155

1,124

1,208

7.5

 

Total

23,555

38,851

41,020

5.6

 

Table 5-2) Export from Indonesia to China (mil US$)

 

 

2011

2018

2019

19/18

19/11

III

Animal, vegetable oil

3,553

3,528

3,950

12.0

11.2

V

Mineral, ores, oils

16,530

13,977

13,362

-4.4

-19.2

VI

Chemicals, fertilizers

2,214

2,534

2,449

-3.4

10.6

X

Pulp, paper

1,382

2,968

2,709

-8.7

96.0

XI

Textile, clothing, silk

478

935

943

0.8

97.3

XII

Foot-ware, umbrellas

120

670

814

21.5

577.1

XV

Base metals

837

3,600

3,989

10.8

376.6

72

Iron & Steel

10

2,932

3,156

7.6

32,115.2

XVI

Machinery, Electronics

2,239

1,858

1,790

-3.6

20.0

84

Machinery & parts

798

381

475

24.9

-40.5

85

Electrical machinery, parts

1,440

1,477

1,314

-11.0

--8.7

 

Total

27,353

30,071

30,005

-0.2

9.7

Source; China Trade Statistics

 

 

Chapter 7. The problems of Indonesia from the foreign companies’ view point. Indonesia has broad room for improvement.

 

1)      Inefficiency of government administration, which is the cause of corruption and high cost of management.

2)      Non-tariff barriers. (The special standard of Indonesia, different from foreign standard).

This is what Japanese manufacturing companies are often suffering.

3)      Import tax; in case foreign companies for import materials, machines, they must pay their part of income tax beforehand. Tax system is complicated and sometimes the tax will be refunded much later, after hard negotiation with government officials.)

4)      Fair treatment for foreign companies. 100% share will be requested.

5)      Indonesian government should increase ‘vocational school’, like Thailand. Younger generation needs education of basic manufacturing skill and internet. In Indonesia, 40% of the primary education students will get better jobs. They must be given more education of basic skill , know-how, computer knowledge and English.

The students will support the development of manufacturing and communication. In Thailand these graduates of vocational schools are supporting manufacturing industries such as automobile assembling, auto-parts making and machinery factories.

 

6)      The government has to increase public investment in rural infrastructure and expand the coverage of its agricultural extension program.

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix Table

Table1-1 Chinese Trade with Major countries (million $,%

 

 

2010

2015

2017

2018

2019

18/17

19/18

 

USA

EXP

283,303

409,538

429,755

479,423

418,674

11.6

-12.7

 

 

IMP

102,038

148,737

153,943

155,096

122,714

0.7

-20.9

 

 

B/L

181,266

260,802

275,812

324,327

295,959

17.6

-8.7

 

Germany

EXP

68,047

69,161

71,144

77,550

79,774

9.0

2.9

 

 

IMP

74,342

87,623

96,954

106,334

105,108

9.7

-1.2

 

 

B/L

-6,295

-18,462

-25,810

-28,784

-25,335

11.5

-12.0

 

UK

EXP

38,771

59,582

56,721

56,559

62,406

-0.3

10.3

 

 

IMP

11,304

18,937

22,314

23,879

23,897

7.0

0.1

 

 

B/L

27,467

40,645

34,407

32,679

38,509

-5.0

17.8

 

France

EXP

27,654

26,753

27,669

30,678

32,992

10.9

7.5

 

 

IMP

17,144

24,657

25,795

32,220

32,581

24.9

1.1

 

 

B/L

10,510

2,096

1,874

-1,542

411

 

 

 

Netherland

EXP

49,706

59,463

67,135

77,850

73,957

16.0

-5.0

 

 

IMP

6,477

8,792

11,244

12,330

11,206

9.7

-9.1

 

 

B/L

43,228

50,671

55,891

65,521

62,750

17.2

-4.2

 

Italy

EXP

31,141

27,837

29,171

33,173

33,499

13.7

1.0

 

 

IMP

14,011

16,855

20,427

21,063

21,412

3.1

1.7

 

 

B/L

17,130

10,982

8,744

12,110

12,087

38.5

-0.2

 

Spain

EXP

18,175

21,860

22,917

24,954

26,876

8.9

7.7

 

 

IMP

6,231

5,600

8,024

8,764

8,603

9.2

-1.8

 

 

B/L

11,943

16,260

14,893

16,190

18,273

8.7

12.9

 

EU

EXP

311,235

355,876

372,042

408,632

428,700

9.8

4.9

 

 

IMP

168,477

208,879

244,874

273,533

276,596

11.7

1.1

 

 

B/L

142,758

146,997

127,167

135,099

152,105

6.2

12.6

 

Japan

EXP

121,061

135,671

137,324

147,083

143,270

7.1

-2.6

 

 

IMP

176,707

142,987

165,652

180,580

171,762

9.0

-4.9

 

 

B/L

-55,646

-7,316

-28,328

-33,496

-28,492

18.2

-14.9

 

S.Korea

EXP

68,771

101,296

102,751

108,789

111,001

5.9

2.0

 

 

IMP

138,399

174,518

177,508

204,639

175,575

15.3

-14.2

 

 

B/L

-69,628

-73,222

-74,757

-95,850

-64,574

28.2

-32.6

 

Taiwan

EXP

29,676

44,899

43,990

48,647

55,081

10.6

13.2

 

 

IMP

115,644

143,307

155,386

177,598

173,002

14.3

-2.6

 

 

B/L

-85,968

-98,408

-111,396

-128,951

-117,921

15.8

-8.6

 

India

EXP

40,919

58,240

68,064

76,705

74,827

12.7

-2.4

 

 

IMP

20,841

13,383

16,344

18,838

17,987

15.3

-4.5

 

 

B/L

20,078

44,857

51,720

57,868

56,840

11.9

-1.8

 

Australia

EXP

27,226

40,322

41,440

47,338

48,205

14.2

1.8

 

 

IMP

60,866

73,643

94,822

105,452

121,432

11.2

15.2

 

 

B/L

-33,640

-33,320

-53,382

-58,113

-73,227

8.9

26.0

 

Saudi

EXP

10,367

21,623

18,220

17,444

23,856

-4.3

36.8

 

 Arabia

IMP

32,814

30,035

31,764

45,891

54,182

44.5

18.1

 

 

B/L

-22,447

-8,412

-13,544

-28,448

-30,326

110.0

6.6

 

G/Total

EXP

1,577,824

2,274,950

2,263,522

2,487,401

2,499,029

9.9

0.5

 

 

IMP

1,395,099

1,681,951

1,840,982

2,135,637

2,077,097

16.0

-2.7

 

 

B/L

182,725

592,999

422,540

351,763

421,932

-16.8

19.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1-2 China Trade with ASEAN10

million $、%)

 

 

 

2010

2015

2017

2018

2019

18/17

19/18

 

 

Export

19,747

38,293

38,706

42,893

45,595

-5.9

6.3

 

Thailand

Import

33,200

37,170

41,580

44,632

46,158

-3.3

3.4

 

 

Balance

-13,453

1,124

-2,874

-1,739

-563

208.7

-67.6

 

 

Export

23,806

43,990

41,725

46,403

52,134

-11.0

12.4

 

Malaysia

Import

50,410

53,300

54,302

63,222

71,828

-12.0

13.6

 

 

Balance

-26,604

-9,310

-12,578

-16,819

-19,694

-14.6

17.1

 

 

Export

21,973

34,342

34,764

43,209

45,644

-5.3

5.6

 

Indonesia

Import

20,777

19,888

28,552

36,162

34,061

6.2

-5.8

 

 

Balance

1,195

14,454

6,212

7,048

11,582

-39.1

64.3

 

 

Export

11,541

26,673

32,044

35,062

40,747

-14.0

16.2

 

Philippine

Import

16,205

18,976

19,231

20,607

20,205

2.0

-1.9

 

 

Balance

-4,665

7,697

12,814

14,455

20,542

-29.6

42.1

 

 

Export

23,114

66,124

70,994

83,900

97,870

-14.3

16.7

 

Vietnam

Import

6,980

29,842

50,331

63,959

64,134

-0.3

0.3

 

 

Balance

16,133

36,282

20,663

19,941

33,735

-40.9

69.2

 

 

Export

32,348

52,008

45,020

49,165

54,726

-10.2

11.3

 

Singapore

Import

24,710

27,556

34,223

33,715

35,215

-4.3

4.4

 

 

Balance

7,638

24,452

10,796

15,450

19,511

-20.8

26.3

 

 

Export

 

 

279,120

319,244

359,425

-11.2

12.6

 

ASEAN

Import

 

235,696

268,628

282,042

-4.8

5.0

 

 

Balance

 

 

43,424

50,615

77,383

-34.6

52.9

 

Source; China Custom Statistics.

 

 

 

Table 2 USA Trade by country (mil $)

 

 

2003

2010

2015

2018

2019

19/18

World Totl

Export

   730,446

 1,271,972

1,489,795

1,652,113

1,633,066

-1.2

 

Import

 1,272,089

 1,938,950

2,273,249

2,561,667

2,519,049

-1.7

 

Balance

  -541,643

  -666,978

 -783,454

 -909,554

 -885,983

-2.6

Japn

Export

       51,805

       61,472

63,085

75,958

75,321

-0.8

 

Import

      119,347

      122,929

134,365

144,410

145,534

0.8

 

Balance

      -67,542

      -61,457

     -71,280

     -68,452

     -70,213

2.6

China

Export

       28,646

       93,059

116,505

120,829

107,719

-10.9

 

Import

      152,974

      366,126

484,071

540,431

452,700

-16.2

 

Balance

    -124,328

    -273,067

    -367,566

    -419,602

     -344,981

-17.8

Hong Kong

Export

       13,616

       27,531

37,954

38,228

31,648

-17.2

 

Import

        9,650

        4,696

7,318

6,805

5,279

-22.4

 

Balance

        3,966

       22,835

      30,636

      31,423

       26,369

-16.1

China+HK

Export

       42,262

      120,590

     154,459

     159,057

     139,367

-12.4

 

Import

      162,624

      370,822

     491,389

     547,236

     457,979

-16.3

 

Balance

    -120,362

    -250,232

-336,802

-388,179

-318,612

-17.9

Korea

Export

       24,851

       40,082

44,483

57,617

57,887

0.5

 

Import

       37,797

       49,762

72,448

75,011

78,089

4.1

 

Balance

      -12,946

       -9,680

     -27,965

     -17,394

      -20,202

16.1

Taiwan

Export

       17,847

       26,975

26,437

31,168

31,836

2.1

 

Import

       32,292

       36,016

41,011

45,750

54,298

18.7

 

Balance

      -14,445

       -9,041

     -14,574

     -14,582

      -22,462

54.0

Singapore

Export

       16,569

       29,079

28,280

32,393

31,269

-3.5

 

Import

       15,434

       18,454

18,335

26,414

26,094

-1.2

 

Balance

        1,135

       10,625

       9,945

       5,979

        5,175

-13.4

Indonesia

Export

        2,516

        6,948

7,118

8,171

7,733

-5.4

 

Import

        9,515

       16,478

19,605

20,829

20,147

-3.3

 

Balance

       -6,999

       -9,530

     -12,487

     -12,658

      -12,414

-1.9

Malaysia

Export

       10,914

       14,080

12,278

12,952

13,192

1.8

 

Import

       25,440

       25,901

33,972

39,354

40,567

3.1

 

Balance

      -14,526

      -11,821

-21,694

-26,402

     -14,526

-45.0

Thailand

Export

        5,835

        8,976

11,229

12,521

13,299

6.2

 

Import

       15,179

       22,694

28,622

31,863

33,447

5.0

 

Balance

       -9,343

      -13,717

     -17,394

     -19,342

     -20,148

4.2

Philippine

Export

        7,987

        7,377

7,903

8,716

8,642

-0.8

 

Import

       10,059

        7,892

10,232

12,592

12,778

1.5

 

Balance

       -2,072

        -515

      -2,329

      -3,875

       -4,136

6.7

ASEAN 5

Export

       35,870

       59,119

      58,941

      66,072

       65,528

-0.8

 

Import

       75,627

       91,419

     110,766

     131,050

      133,033

1.5

 

Balance

      -39,756

      -32,300

     -51,825

     -64,978

      -67,505

3.9

Vietnam

Export

1,324

3,706

7,101

9,676

10,860

12.2

 

Import

4,555

14,868

38,015

49,159

66,610

35.5

 

Balance

-3,231

-11,162

-30,914

-39,483

-55,749

41.2

India

Export

        5,040

       19,345

21,515

33,567

34,536

2.9

 

Import

       13,091

       29,683

44,902

54,460

57,762

6.1

 

Balance

       -8,051

      -10,338

     -23,387

     -20,893

      -23,226

11.2

Australia

Export

       13,074

       21,720

25,179

25,547

26,228

2.7

 

Import

        6,527

        8,815

11,050

10,290

11,018

7.1

 

Balance

        6,547

       12,905

      14,129

      15,257

       15,210

-0.3

Canada

Export

      169,992

      250,283

281,562

300,158

293,301

-2.3

 

Import

      224,507

      281,822

302,806

325,017

325,761

0.2

 

Balance

      -54,515

      -31,539

     -21,244

     -24,859

     -32,460

30.6

Mexico

Export

       97,467

      163,757

236,766

265,999

256,860

-3.4

 

Import

      140,005

      232,804

303,369

352,583

364,461

3.4

 

Balance

      -42,538

      -69,047

     -66,603

     -86,584

     -107,601

24.3

Brazil

Export

       11,224

       35,348

31,565

39,461

42,716

8.2

 

Import

       17,989

       24,200

26,470

30,152

30,806

2.2

 

Balance

       -6,765

       11,148

       5,095

       9,309

       11,910

27.9

Saudi Arabia

Export

        4,764

       11,462

19,852

13,601

14,349

5.5

 

Import

       18,156

       31,485

22,151

24,124

13,451

-44.2

 

Balance

      -13,392

      -20,023

      -2,299

     -10,523

         898

France

Export

       17,257

       27,353

30,235

36,749

37,883

3.1

 

Import

       29,415

       38,817

48,415

52,834

57,903

9.6

 

Balance

      -12,158

      -11,464

     -18,180

     -16,085

     -20,020

24.5

Germany

Export

       29,018

       48,482

50,069

57,779

60,064

4.0

 

Import

       68,713

       83,505

125,462

125,206

127,804

2.1

 

Balance

      -39,695

      -35,023

     -75,393

     -67,427

      -67,740

0.5

Italy

Export

       10,569

       14,393

16,288

22,925

23,882

4.2

 

Import

       25,526

       28,797

42,752

54,951

57,496

4.6

 

Balance

      -14,957

      -14,404

     -26,464

     -32,026

      -33,614

5.0

 

Export

21,014

26,090

29,220

34,852