時事評論

2015-10-9 インドネシア；バンドン―ジャカルタ高速鉄道
私は2002年に『東南アジアの経済と歴史』という本を日本経済評論社から出した。アジア経済学者の多くはこれに反発したという。なぜなら当時日本で主流であった（今でも）「開発独裁」を批判したからである。これは日本人のアジア認識を間違わせる大きな原因である。開発独裁を容認することは日本人のアジア理解をゆがめてきた。

フィリピンやインドネシアがなぜ現在立ち遅れた状態にあるかといえば政治指導者が「国民の利益」を口にしながらも実施は「個人の利益」を優先してきたことの結果である。そのために汚職が下々まで蔓延して「汚職はインドネシアの文化」であるなどとインドネシア人自身が言い出す始末である。「汚職慣行」は植民地時代の「オランダ人」から引き継いだものであるという。それならば独立して66年もたった現在までなぜ汚職が克服できなかったのか。

スカルノ大統領の娘のメガワティ女史が「闘争民主党」などという大げさな名前の政党を率いて大統領になったとこは大いに期待したが、全くの期待外れに終わった。ジョコウィ（Jokowi)政権は汚職退治を公約の第１に掲げて政権に就いたが、今回の「ジャカルタ―バンドン高速鉄道プロジェクト」でさっそく馬脚を現してしまった。日本がFS段階から協力していたが、あとから中国がが乗り込んできて、「高い金額」でオファーしてきた。日本の価格よりも13兆ルピアも高い価格(報道によると53億ドル対55億ドルでその差は2億ドル約240億円）だったという。これは関係者で「山分けする」汚職の原資になる。インドネシア政府部内でもモメたらしいが、Jokowiとしては一旦「高速鉄道」を止めにして在来線の高速化で対応しようとし、「白紙撤回」を正式に宣言した。

一方で「汚職退治」をやりながら、別なところで自分たちの「汚職のネタ」を確保していると疑われても仕方がないであろう。

ところが、その舌の根も乾かぬうちに、実は中国と裏で「話が出来上がっていた」のである。中国案を一方的に採用した。中国案はインドネシア政府の国家予算は使わず、借入の政府保証を求めないというものであった。それも2018年には完成させるという。しかもあきれたことに工事費は日本案よりも1100億円も高いのである。この金額の差はただ事ではない。関係者の間で分配されることは間違いない。これでは今までの政権と何ら変わるところはない。

インドネシア政府の言い分は「中国案」は国家予算を使わない「B-B（ビジネス同士）」の取引だという。インドネシアの補償を求める日本案に対して有利なのだという。しかし、これは詭弁である。インドネシアの国営企業が出資するのである。万一の場合は国営企業が赤字を補てんする。これはインドネシアの政府保証と同じである。

政府高官がこんなことをやっていたのではインドネシアの国民経済は前に進みようがない。

最近マレーシアでもおかしなことが起こっている。ナジブ首相の肝いりで作られた政府金融機関が大穴を開けたという。しかも大金がナジブ首相の懐に流れたのではないかと取りざたされている。それを批判した政治家や弁護士がブタ箱に入れられている。(続く）

The end of globalization and the future of Indonesia development　Takashi SUZUKI

1、           Current economic and political situation in the world.

１）Now is the last stage of ‘Neo Liberalism’ and ‘Globalization’.

Neo Liberalism brought the inequality of people of the advanced countries. Majority of people are getting poorer and miserable. Only one percent rich people dominate majority of world wealth.

Since the end of 1970s, neo-liberalism began to dominate world economy.

Thacherism in Britain, and Reganomics in the USA.

Their basic policies

A)Small government, less tax from rich people.

B)Low wage for working people, and less social welfare for common people.

C)Free import from under-developed countries, such as China.

D)Destruction of trade-union.

E)No long term investment, especially steel industry, but promoted development of big finance companies. The financial capital (major banks) of USA dominates world financial economy.

2) The result of neo-liberalism and globalization

    A. Income of common people relatively decreased and consumption of household has been squeezed in the developed countries. That is the cause of long term recession.

    Gross national production(GNP);

    Production = Investment + Consumption + Exports – Imports +(-)stock

    B. Free trade

      Free import from under developed countries→The working place of developed countries decreased, with higher unemployment of working place. As the result, the people of underdeveloped countries are a little happier than common people of developed countries.

 But, the economic position of underdeveloped countries has not improved so much, because the manufacturing industries, excluding China, have not improved so much.

      If the manufacturing industries would develop in the underdeveloped countries, the people would get more income and their living conditions would have been improved.

 C) China has been the biggest beneficiary of the globalization, or free trade and become the No. 2 economy of the world. However, China Government became a little arrogant and got illusion that they can dominate the whole world. “One band one road” policy is the typical manifest of China. But the conflict with USA became apparent and USA began to counter attack against China. Recently, the imports from China have not increased so much, but USA started to establish the alternative source of imports.

 Vietnam is the largest beneficiary of this movement. Vietnam increased exports to USA 10 times since 2005 to 2019, followed by India 3 times. China remained 1.86 times and Indonesia 1.68 times. But Indonesia has big chance to increase export to USA, because Indonesia has a plenty of capable working force and the natural resources and the base of manufacturing.

Attach table.

3. Structural change of the world economy.

After the world finally finishes the pandemic (Wuhan virus), the world economy will be less globalized than before.

Almost all the governments of the developed countries had supported the free trade, but their workers suffered very heavily, because cheap imports had robbed their working jobs. As the result the consumption po the developed countries decrease much. That is the cause of longe recession of the developed countries and their GDP growth became lower copared with that of underdeveloped countries.

　　From semiconductor makers to auto-parts producers, companies are recognizing multinational production networks are vulnerable to disruption. At least concentrating on China is very dangerous, so they are considering to relocate their factories to safer countries.

If all the joint-ventures go back to the USA, they may face difficulty to employ many workers and their profits may decline due to higher wage. So, they will try to relocate to the better countries. And global capitalism will have to be rebalanced.

Low-income countries will get better chance to become manufacturing countries. Some examples have appeared already, for instance, Vietnam, India and possibly Indonesia.

Indonesia will have bigger chance, because Indonesia has many good working force and natural resources.

After the end of current big recession of the world economy.

A) Developed countries

  Under the restriction of free trade, the working class will get more jobs and unemployment ratio will be improved, which means that every developed country will decrease imports and re-start their manufacturing of daily needs.

B）Underdeveloped countries　

Manufacturing will develop in these countries, but foreign companies with higher technology will be more selective to invest in the underdeveloped countries. Foreign companies will request the environment of better investment opportunities.

4. New foreign companies will request to the underdevelopment countries.

1)To the government;

a)Clean, transparent and efficient administration, which are necessary to improve management cost. In case of Indonesia, these management cost is relatively high and time consuming.

b)Low tax and tax exemption, but foreign companies willing to pay taxes according to the normal regulations.

 2)To the employees

A) Manufacturing skill is requested to make better quality of products, but these skills will be acquired on the job training (OJT).

B) Skill of communication: English language and the basic skill of computer and internet.

C) Longer time employment: to acquire working knowhow and skill of manufacturing, longer term working experience will be necessary.

D) Reasonable industrial relation with union.

5. Merit of manufacturing compared with agriculture

Manufacturing generally needs capitalism system, which is not free from recession.

Income is of manufacturing industries higher than that of agriculture, owing to the difference of productivity.

The difference of productivity of manufacturing would be more than three times higher than that of agriculture per capita. As the result, the development of manufacturing industries would affect the agriculture section, and the income of farmers would be improved following manufacturing development.

1）Economic structure of Indonesia

The structure of GDP has not changed so much in Indonesia.　The agriculture sector has not changed, the industrial sector decreased and the service sector increased.

Many foreign manufacturing companies （US, Japanese, Taiwanese etc.）will move to Indonesia sooner or later. Indonesia has many man-power and they acquire technical skills very easily. As the result, Indonesia can develop manufacturing sector, considerably.

Table 2. GDP of Indonesia　（％ of GDP）

(Source; Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2019, Asian Development Bank)

Manufacturing sector is important, because it increases national wealth and income of the people rapidly. Because productivity of manufacturing is more than 3 times higher than that of agriculture. IT industries are much higher.

2) What Indonesian can do in manufacturing industries?

Assembling industries: clothing, apparel, electronics, PC, I Phone

Auto parts, battery for automobile, electric bicycle,

Compact passenger car , EV car,

６．Trade between Indonesia and China

Indonesia can replace Chinese imports easily.

In 2019, Indonesia imported from China,45,790 million US$, and exported China,34,060 million US$, trade imbalance with China was 11,729 million US$. The major imported items from China, are ‘machineries and textiles and base metals=.38.3%, 11.1%, 13.1%.

Indonesia exports to China mainly natural resources, mineral ore, pulp and palm oil (recently increased steel).

Indonesia can replace imports from China, if the manufacturing level will improve.

Furthermore, Indonesia can export clothing, sports shoes, auto-parts, personal computers and I-phones to the USA and Europe, because the USA wants to change its supply source from China to other countries. Assembling industries will have big chance to export to the developed countries.

Table 3-1) Import from China (mil US$)

Table 3-2) Export from Indonesia to China (mil US$)

（Source; China Trade Statistics）

7.The problems of Indonesia from the foreign companies’ view point.

1)     Inefficiency of government administration, which is the cause of corruption and high cost of management.

2)     Non-tariff barriers. ( Indonesian special standard, which is not same as foreign standard).

This is what Japanese manufacturing companies are suffering most.

3)     Import tax; in case foreign companies import materials, machines, they must pay their part of income tax beforehand. Tax system is complicated and sometimes the tax will be refunded much later, after keen negotiation with government officials.)

4)     Fair treatment for foreign companies and local companies.

(Appendix data)

There will be some more statistic tables, for instance, the comparison of GDP, Trade statistics of USA.